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📰 U.S. sanctions Brazilian judges

📰 U.S. sanctions Brazilian judges

and ISWAP's shadow state

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 31, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Southeast Asian states accelerate air force modernisation amid shifting strategic priorities; AUKUS exposes the UK’s submarine challenges and underlying vulnerabilities; and Canada prepares to recognise Palestine at the United Nations.

Meanwhile, our lead story focuses on northeastern Nigeria, where the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has emerged as the most resilient ISIS affiliate, sustaining a protracted insurgency through a highly developed and adaptive governance structure.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇧🇷 U.S. sanctions Brazilian judges and raises tariffs to 50% amid Bolsonaro trial: The United States has imposed sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and raised tariffs on Brazilian imports by 50%, citing what Trump calls a politically driven “witch hunt” against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Moraes, who is overseeing Bolsonaro’s coup-plotting case, was sanctioned under the Global Magnitsky Act for alleged censorship, arbitrary detentions, and politicised prosecutions. President Donald Trump linked the tariffs to the case, while U.S. authorities ordered the freezing of any assets Moraes holds in the country. Brazil’s government condemned the move as foreign interference, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva calling it “arbitrary” and a violation of national sovereignty. Washington had earlier imposed visa restrictions on Moraes and other court officials, escalating tensions with Latin America’s largest economy. Critics have expressed concern over the foreign attack on Brazilian democracy and legal due process.

2️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 🇲🇲 Thailand-Cambodia clashes, Myanmar war undermine ASEAN's credibility and strategic centrality: ASEAN’s principle of centrality faces a serious test as border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia escalate in the disputed Emerald Triangle. Despite Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, as 2025 ASEAN chair, urging de-escalation “the ASEAN way,” Cambodia has appealed to the UN Security Council, while Thailand insists on bilateral talks only after attacks cease. This mirrors ASEAN’s underwhelming response to Myanmar’s crisis and its paralysis over South China Sea disputes, exposing the fragility of its non-interference and non-use-of-force principles. The standoff evokes memories of the 2008–2011 skirmishes and of the Cambodia–Vietnam border war, when regional disputes became Cold War proxy conflicts. History underscores that military escalation yields no durable settlement, while internationalisation invites great-power rivalry that undermines regional agency. A spiral of U.S.–Thai and China–Cambodian alignment—through reopened U.S. access to Thai bases or expanded Chinese presence at Ream naval base—would sideline ASEAN entirely.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇩🇪 🇮🇱 Merz isolated among European capitals for refusing to endorse EU Israel sanctions plan: As famine grips Gaza, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces growing pressure to abandon Berlin’s steadfast support for Israel and back EU penalties against Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The European Commission has proposed partially suspending the EU‑Israel Association Agreement, citing a “humanitarian catastrophe” and accusing Israel of violating international law. Several EU states, including France and the Netherlands, support immediate action, while Germany and a handful of allies continue to stall, though signs suggest Berlin’s stance may be softening. The Commission’s plan initially targets Israel’s access to Horizon Europe, with broader trade measures under discussion. European leaders are increasingly split: France, the U.K., and several other countries are moving toward recognition of Palestinian statehood, while Spain, Ireland, and Slovenia have already done so. Rights groups warn EU inaction is enabling continued civilian suffering in Gaza.

4️⃣ 🇵🇹 🇲🇦 🇪🇭 🇺🇳 Portugal endorses Morocco’s Western Sahara autonomy plan, undermining UN-backed Sahrawi self‑determination: Portugal has endorsed Morocco’s autonomy proposal for Western Sahara, describing it as a “serious and credible” solution to the decades‑long dispute. Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel’s statement aligns Lisbon with a growing bloc of Western states supporting Moroccan sovereignty, despite warnings from international legal experts that such moves erode the Sahrawi people’s inalienable right to self‑determination and risk normalising Morocco’s occupation. The conflict dates to the 1970s, when Spain withdrew and the Algeria‑backed Polisario Front began its struggle for independence. Morocco’s plan offers limited self‑rule under its authority, which the Polisario rejects. UN‑sponsored talks have stalled for years, and Portugal’s endorsement gives Rabat new diplomatic momentum even as a genuine political settlement remains elusive.

5️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇫🇷 Rights groups urge France to pay Haiti reparations amid funding suspensions and humanitarian collapse: More than 60 rights organisations have urged French President Emmanuel Macron to compensate Haiti for the crippling indemnity it paid France after independence, which included payments for enslaved people classified as “property.” CARICOM and allied African groups are also pressing for broader reparations tied to slavery, including debt cancellation and funding for health, education, and cultural development initiatives. Additionally, Haiti is facing a severe humanitarian crisis as the abrupt suspension of most U.S. funding in January 2025 forced 80% of American-supported aid programs to halt. Services for millions—including food aid, health care, water access, and protection for women and children—have been cut or frozen. Armed gangs control key roads and neighbourhoods, displacing 1.3 million people and worsening donor concerns over safety and operational risk.

Major Story

🇳🇬 ISWAP’S SHADOW STATE

In northeastern Nigeria, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has evolved into the most resilient affiliate of ISIS, sustaining a protracted insurgency through a sophisticated governance system. While inspired by ISIS-central’s administrative blueprint, ISWAP has tailored its model to the Lake Chad Basin, creating a quasi-state that blends armed violence with service delivery and resource extraction. Its formal departments, known as dawawin, oversee military operations, religious enforcement, taxation, justice, and basic services—allowing the group to function as an alternative authority in areas where the Nigerian state is absent or discredited.

Winning Hearts Through Services and Revenue

ISWAP’s entrenchment rests on its ability to fill the governance vacuum left by a corrupt and often abusive state. It constructs boreholes, provides generators, distributes agricultural inputs, mediates local disputes, and offers free healthcare in its territory. Fishermen and farmers operate under its permits and protection, while ISWAP’s religious courts and morality police provide a semblance of order. These services foster civilian compliance, often motivated by pragmatic survival rather than ideological loyalty. This governance is underpinned by a robust taxation system that generates more than $191 million annually—ten times the 2024 tax revenue of Borno State. The Lake Chad fishing economy, with thousands of large-scale operators from Nigeria and neighbouring states, forms ISWAP’s financial backbone, supplemented by spoils of war and external ISIS support.

The Political Economy of Insurgency

ISWAP’s ability to provide security, regulate commerce, and mediate conflicts has allowed it to embed within local economic and social life. Compliance is often transactional: civilians accept ISWAP’s rule for protection from bandits, rival Boko Haram factions, and predatory state forces. This fusion of religious legitimacy, economic control, and service provision makes ISWAP far more than a militant group—it is a shadow state whose influence extends across the Lake Chad Basin.

A Military Response is Not Enough

Despite sustained airstrikes and joint offensives by Nigeria and the Multinational Joint Task Force, ISWAP continues to adapt and endure. Military operations have degraded its forces but failed to offer communities an alternative form of governance. Political analyst and humanitarian expert Obi Anyadike writes that without a political strategy that couples security operations with reliable service delivery, justice provision, and accountable local administration, the Nigerian state will struggle to dislodge ISWAP’s entrenched authority.

The group’s model underscores a broader lesson in counterinsurgency: defeating such actors requires undermining not only their battlefield strength but also their political economy and legitimacy. Until Nigeria offers a credible alternative to the order ISWAP provides, the jihadist movement will remain a formidable and deeply rooted insurgent power in the Lake Chad region.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇾 🇻🇳 🇹🇭 Southeast Asian states accelerates air force modernisation amid shifting strategic priorities: Southeast Asian countries are rapidly modernising their air forces, replacing ageing fleets with advanced combat aircraft to bolster deterrence and strategic autonomy. Indonesia leads the charge, planning 64 French Rafales alongside additional jets from South Korea, Türkiye, and the U.S., while Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are diversifying suppliers to include South Korea, Sweden, France, and Czechia. This reflects a shift away from exclusive reliance on the U.S. or Russia, driven by cost, supply-chain security, and political considerations. Yet sustainability challenges—pilot training, maintenance, and spare parts—remain acute, as seen in Malaysia’s grounded Russian aircraft. For many governments, high-profile acquisitions mask funding and logistical constraints, but the broader trend signals an effort to prepare for high-tech warfare and reduce vulnerability to great-power pressure.

2️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Canada to recognise Palestine at UN: Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada intends to recognise the State of Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September, joining a wave of countries backing two-state solution efforts. The move follows France and the UK’s similar pledges, with New Zealand and Australia among 15 co-signatories of the “New York Call,” which signals broader international momentum toward recognition. Carney conditioned Canada’s recognition on the Palestinian Authority holding 2026 elections excluding Hamas, alongside democratic reforms and the militant group’s disarmament and release of hostages. The declaration stressed unifying Gaza and the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority.

3️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇬🇧 AUKUS masks UK vulnerabilities and submarine challenges: The new 50‑year Geelong treaty, celebrated by Australian and UK ministers as a milestone for AUKUS, is more paperwork than progress. It relies on the United States to sustain the programme for decades—training Australians, selling up to five Virginia‑class subs, and covering gaps until the first SSN‑AUKUS boats arrive in the 2040s. Yet the UK faces severe industrial and military constraints: its submarine fleet is hollowed out, maintenance backlogs persist, and promises to deliver larger, faster‑built subs appear unrealistic. London’s strategic pivot back to Europe undercuts its Indo‑Pacific ambitions, while its leaders frame the deal as a job‑creation windfall rather than a credible security plan. Behind the rhetoric, AUKUS remains a high‑risk gamble, dependent on U.S. capacity and an already stretched British defence industry.