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📰 UAE-Brazil defense pact

📰 UAE-Brazil defense pact

and Khartoum aid breakthrough

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 01, 2025

Hello,

Today's geopolitical developments underscore North Korea's shift towards a more hawkish U.S. strategy, while in Sudan, humanitarian diplomacy sees a significant milestone as an aid convoy reaches South Khartoum for the first time since the war began. Meanwhile, Iran and Egypt move towards diplomatic normalisation.

Today's main story examines the diplomatic fallout between Iran and Russia following recent developments in Syria.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇦🇪 🇧🇷 Inside the UAE and Brazil’s defence partnership: Brazil, already the UAE's largest trade partner in South America, is emerging as a key security ally and a promising destination for Abu Dhabi's defense exports. This shift is highlighted by a recent agreement between the Emirati EDGE Group and Brazil's CENSIPAM, marking a significant step in their growing defense collaboration. The partnership reflects the UAE's delicate balancing act of strengthening ties with emerging powers like Brazil while maintaining its reliance on the US security framework. In 2023, non-oil trade between Brazil and the UAE surged to 4.3 billion USD, solidifying Brazil's position as the UAE's largest trading partner in South America. The deeper defense ties align with the UAE's broader strategy of diversifying its defense market and embracing a more multilateral approach while still maintaining close relations with the US.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇸🇴 🇪🇹 UN and AU authorise new al-Shabaab containment mission, with Ethiopian troops excluded: The United Nations Security Council has authorized the African Union Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) to counter terrorism and facilitate humanitarian aid. Replacing ATMIS, AUSSOM will deploy 12,626 personnel starting January 2025. The UK led the draft resolution, with Somalia determining which countries contribute troops. Ethiopian forces are notably excluded, while Egypt has announced participation. Tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia over Red Sea access complicate discussions, though the Ankara Declaration aims to ease relations. Local skepticism about AUSSOM's effectiveness persists, reflecting frustrations with ATMIS. Internal divisions within Somalia could obstruct operations, but international actors hope the mission strengthens counter-terrorism and stabilization efforts.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 300 arrested in Syria crackdown on Assad loyalists: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces in Syria launched a large-scale crackdown on pro-Assad militias, arresting nearly 300 people, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported. Meanwhile, HTS leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa told Al-Arabiya that national elections could take up to four years, citing the need for constitutional reform and a full population census. Al-Sharaa emphasized that Syria’s liberation was a collective effort and revealed ongoing talks with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate them into the armed forces. He highlighted the Kurds' role in Syria’s future and expressed hope that the incoming Trump administration would ease sanctions on the country.

4️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇪🇬 Egypt and Iran edge closer to diplomatic normalisation: Egypt and Iran are moving toward fully restoring diplomatic ties after decades of estrangement, with embassies expected to reopen following Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s visit to Cairo. Pezeshkian met Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi during a D-8 summit, where both leaders praised progress in rebuilding relations and expressed hope for full normalization. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi highlighted the potential benefits of stronger cooperation in a televised interview. Araghchi’s visit included stops at Shia shrines and historical sites in Cairo, signaling deeper cultural engagement. Iranian Vice President Mehdi Sanaei confirmed increasing dialogue since the Gaza war, indicating that political discussions are underway, with embassies set to reopen soon.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 Aid convoy reaches south Khartoum for first time since the outbreak of war: A long-awaited aid convoy has reached civilians in Jebel Awliya, south of Khartoum, marking the first delivery since Sudan’s war began 20 months ago, volunteers confirmed. The 28-truck convoy, coordinated by local emergency response teams, included food from the UN’s World Food Programme, medical supplies from UNICEF, and contributions from Doctors Without Borders and Care. The aid aims to address the urgent health and nutrition needs of 200,000 people in the area, where mass starvation looms. Gaining access required months of negotiations amid threats and roadblocks from both the Sudanese army (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Major Story

🇮🇷 🇷🇺 🇸🇾 IRAN’S SYRIA PRESENCE AND TENSIONS WITH RUSSIA

Controversy has emerged regarding Iran’s military involvement in Syria and its recent withdrawal. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russian forces evacuated 4,000 Iranian fighters from Syria in late 2024, sparking debate about the scale and nature of Iran’s presence. Tehran has denied these allegations, insisting it only deployed military advisors, not fighters, to Syria. This difference in narratives has rekindled concerns about the reliability of the Iran-Russia partnership and intensified tensions between the two nations.

Iran's Strategic Position in Syria Post-Assad

Iran’s influence in Syria has significantly diminished following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Despite this setback, Iranian officials continue to assert that their support for Syria was crucial to Assad’s survival, particularly through backing HIzbollah and the IRGC. Meanwhile, the rise of Turkey’s influence and ongoing Kurdish issues present new challenges for Tehran’s regional aspirations.

Internal Divisions and Russian Tensions

The dispute over the evacuation of Iranian personnel reflects broader internal divisions in Iran regarding its relationship with Russia. Historical mistrust and Russia’s actions, such as failing to deliver fighter jets and aligning with the GCC on territorial issues, have exacerbated these tensions. However, Iran’s strategic priorities, particularly in safeguarding Shia interests, ensure that it will likely continue to pursue influence in Syria, albeit with a more cautious and pragmatic approach.

Future Prospects

Although the diplomatic fallout from Putin's comments has caused discomfort in Tehran, it is unlikely to derail the broader strategic cooperation between Iran and Russia. Nonetheless, as Iran reassesses its role in Syria, its future influence in the region will depend on balancing its relationships with other key players, including Kurdish groups and regional powers.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Civilians killed in Israeli strikes near Damascus: Israeli airstrikes reportedly killed over ten people in Adra, near Damascus, with Syrian media claiming the target was a weapons depot in the industrial zone. Israeli military sources, however, denied involvement, stating that no strikes were carried out in the area. Syrian reports suggested that most of the victims were civilians. Since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime on December 8, Israel has launched numerous airstrikes on Syrian sites, ostensibly aiming to prevent advanced weaponry from reaching hostile forces.

2️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇺🇸 North Korea to implement hawkish U.S. strategy: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un chaired a key policy-setting meeting last week ahead of the new year, where officials outlined plans to adopt the "toughest" strategy to counter the United States, according to state media KCNA. The meeting criticized the growing alliance between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, describing it as a "nuclear military bloc" and labeling South Korea as an "anti-communist outpost." Kim emphasised Pyongyang’s ambition to advance defense science and technology to strengthen North Korea’s deterrence capabilities and vowed to further promote relations with "friendly" countries.