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📰 UK troops mobilize

📰 UK troops mobilize

and China tests ICBMs

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
September 25, 2024

Hello and welcome back.

Today's coverage once again focuses on the escalating Israeli offensive in Lebanon, where tens of thousands are fleeing from the south, Beqaa Valley, and southern Beirut. In response, the UK is deploying 700 troops to Cyprus to facilitate the evacuation of British citizens.

In East Asia, recent Chinese intercontinental ballistic missile tests have raised alarms in Taiwan, while in the Horn of Africa, Egypt has delivered another significant consignment of military equipment to Mogadishu.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Tens of thousands flee the South and Beqaa, as Lebanon says only Washington can stop the fighting: Lebanon has expressed that only U.S. intervention could bring an end to the conflict. Health Minister Firass Abiad told the BBC that Israel's actions have resulted in "carnage," devastating countless civilians, including women and children. Amidst Israel's heavy bombardment, Hizbollah announced the death of one of its top commanders, Ibrahim Muhammad Qubaisi, early Wednesday. His death came just hours after the Israeli military claimed responsibility for "eliminating" him in an airstrike on Ghobeiry, a Beirut neighbourhood. Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health confirmed six fatalities and 15 injuries from that particular strike, compounding the toll of over 700 people within 48 hours of Israel’s initial strikes. The escalation follows weeks of cross-border skirmishes, which intensified after Israel launched its war on Gaza in October. Hizbollah has retaliated by firing hundreds of rockets into Israel, with about 300 launched on Tuesday—targeting a Mossad HQ near Tel Aviv—in addition to strikes that injured six civilians and soldiers, according to Israeli sources.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 China conducts intercontinental ballistic missile launch into the Pacific Ocean: China has, for the first time, confirmed a successful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch into the Pacific Ocean, raising concerns about its growing nuclear capabilities. The missile, carrying a dummy warhead, was fired by the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force as part of "routine annual training," not targeting any specific country, according to the Chinese defence ministry. China’s Xinhua agency stated that relevant nations were notified, though the missile’s path was unspecified. The test aimed to assess the missile's performance and troop readiness. This comes amid increased Chinese military activity around Taiwan, with Taiwan’s defence ministry reporting 23 Chinese aircraft and intensified missile drills. Taiwan has responded by deploying air and naval forces.

3️⃣ 🇬🇧 OECD predicts UK economy to grow faster than Japan, Italy, and Germany: The global economy is "turning a corner," according to the OECD, which has raised its growth forecast for the UK, now expected to outpace Japan, Italy, and Germany this year. In its latest outlook, the OECD ranked Britain joint second among G7 nations, behind the US, though the UK is still projected to have the highest inflation in the group. Citing "robust" growth, the OECD upgraded the UK's 2024 growth forecast to 1.1%, up from 0.4% in May, as the country rebounds from last year's mild recession. The 2025 growth forecast remains at 1.2%. Previously trailing in the bloc, the UK is now on par with Canada and France.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇹🇷 World leaders call on UN General Assembly to take coercive measures against Israel: Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sharply criticised the UN's inaction on Gaza and accused Israel of turning the Palestinian territory into the "world’s largest graveyard for women and children." Speaking at the UN General Assembly in New York, Erdogan stated, "In Gaza, not only are children dying, but so is the United Nations system. The values the West claims to uphold are dying, truth is dying, and the hopes for a more just world are fading—one by one." A vocal critic of Israel's offensive, Erdogan condemned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government for escalating conflict in the Middle East and called on the global community to halt what he described as Netanyahu’s “network of murder.” Other regional leaders also voiced concerns at the UNGA. Jordan's King Abdullah II dismissed any notion of Jordan becoming an "alternative homeland" for Palestinians, calling their forced displacement a "war crime." Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani condemned Israel's actions in Gaza as "genocide." Leaders have urged the swift implementation of a ceasefire, a prisoner exchange, and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Gaza.

5️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇸🇴 🇪🇹 Egyptian ship delivers ‘significant consignment’ of military materiel to Mogadishu: An Egyptian ship has delivered a substantial shipment of military equipment to Somalia, according to security officials in Mogadishu. Somali Defence Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur expressed gratitude to Egypt in a social media post, although he did not explicitly reference the weapons. This is the second such delivery from Egypt in a month, amid strained relations between Somalia and its former close ally, Ethiopia. Egypt, a long-time rival of Ethiopia, has seized the opportunity to strengthen ties with Somalia, raising concerns about growing tensions in the Horn of Africa. The shipment, transported by a warship that arrived on Sunday, reportedly included anti-aircraft guns and artillery, according to Reuters, citing security and port officials. Ethiopia, which has been a key supporter of Somalia in its fight against al-Shabaab militants, has recently angered Somalia by signing a preliminary agreement with Somaliland—a territory Somalia considers its own—to lease part of Somaliland’s coastline. Meanwhile, tensions between Addis Ababa and Cairo have persisted for over a decade due to Ethiopia's construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the River Nile, which Egypt views as a potential threat to its critical water supply.

Major Story

🇮🇷 🇺🇳 TEHRAN SEEKS TO MEND ITS TIES WITH THE WEST, SAYS IRAN’S PEZESHKIAN

Background

Iran is prepared to resolve its nuclear dispute with the West, President Masoud Pezeshkian announced at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, urging for diplomatic solutions to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Iranian government is keen to see U.S. sanctions lifted, which have severely impacted its economy.

"We are willing to re-engage with the 2015 nuclear deal participants. If commitments are fully honoured in good faith, further discussions on other matters can proceed," Pezeshkian stated.

A Revival of the Nuclear Pact?

In 2018, U.S. President Trump torpedoed the 2015 nuclear agreement between Tehran and six world powers, reinstating stringent sanctions on Iran. Since then, attempts to revive the pact have stalled. Under the terms of the original agreement, Iran's uranium enrichment was limited to 3.67% purity, and its stockpile was capped at 202.8 kg—thresholds that Tehran has significantly surpassed.

For Britain, France, and Germany—remaining signatories to the nuclear deal—there is scepticism regarding any change in Tehran's leadership approach. They view a comprehensive agreement addressing both Iran's nuclear ambitions and its geopolitical actions as unfeasible at this time. The U.S., along with its European allies and Israel, accuses Iran of using its nuclear program as a guise for developing nuclear weapons capabilities, while Iran insists that its nuclear endeavours are solely for peaceful purposes.

Geopolitical Factors

Tehran's relations with the West have deteriorated since the Iran-backed Hamas militant group attacked southern Israel on October 7 and amid Iran's growing support for Russia in its conflict with Ukraine.

Pezeshkian, a moderate politician who assumed office in August with a pledge for a pragmatic foreign policy, condemned Israel for what he termed "genocide in Gaza." He urged the international community to take immediate action to secure a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and to halt what he described as Israel's "desperate barbarism" in Lebanon, warning that these actions could ignite broader regional and global conflicts.

Tensions escalated further with an Israeli airstrike in Beirut that killed a senior commander of Hizbollah, another ally of Iran, prompting increased cross-border rocket attacks and fears of an all-out war.

Pezeshkian asserted that Iran seeks peace and harbours no intentions of conflict with any nation, emphasising the need for an immediate cessation of military actions in Ukraine.

Since the onset of the Ukraine war, Russia has strengthened its ties with Iran and is reportedly preparing to sign a comprehensive cooperation agreement with the Islamic Republic. Additionally, Iran has facilitated covert discussions between Russia and Yemen's Houthi rebels regarding the transfer of anti-ship missiles, showcasing Tehran's deepening alliance with Moscow.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 New cabinet formed by the Assad regime: Syria’s Prime Minister announced his new Cabinet on Monday, appointing Bassam Sabbagh as foreign minister, according to state media. Sabbagh previously served as a deputy to former Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, who is now vice president for foreign and information policies. Earlier this month, President Bashar Assad named former Communications Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali as the new prime minister following July’s parliamentary elections. Key ministries remain unchanged, with Maj. Gen. Ali Abbas as defence minister and Maj. Gen. Mohammed Khaled Rahmoun as interior minister. Jalali has been under European Union sanctions since October 2014 for the government's crackdown during Syria’s civil war, which has resulted in nearly half a million deaths since 2011. The announcement of the new Cabinet came a day after Assad issued an amnesty for crimes committed before September 22, including for those who failed to complete compulsory military service. Similar amnesties have been granted in previous years.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇱🇧 UK deploys 700 troops to pull citizens out of Lebanon: Britain is sending 700 troops to Cyprus to prepare for the possible evacuation of UK citizens from Lebanon, where the Prime Minister has urged those remaining in the country to leave immediately. Military teams are being deployed to enhance support for British nationals amid ongoing Israeli bombardments in southern Lebanon, while the Royal Air Force stands ready with aircraft and helicopters for assistance. This deployment is the first phase of contingency plans designed to avoid the chaos seen during the 2021 evacuation from Afghanistan. On a flight to New York for talks with world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly, Prime Minister Starmer stated, “The key message tonight is for British nationals in Lebanon: leave immediately. It’s essential to be clear—now is the time to go. I am concerned about the situation and believe we must focus on de-escalation, a ceasefire, and stepping back from the brink.”