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📰 UK vs Rwanda aid

📰 UK vs Rwanda aid

and UN vote stuns allies

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 27, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is in the spotlight as a court sentences pro-Moscow Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik, and the country’s fragmented governance hinders its EU and NATO accession aspirations.

Meanwhile, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the most startling development was the United States opposing the measure—aligning with Russia for the first time on this issue.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇩🇪 Outgoing German parliament looks to sign off new defence fund: Germany’s outgoing parliament may be asked to approve a new €200bn defence fund before its dissolution in late March, as CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz pushes for increased military spending amid geopolitical tensions. Talks between the CDU/CSU and SPD have begun, following the near depletion of the €100bn fund established after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. However, easing the constitutional “debt brake” to sustain long-term defence spending remains contentious, with Merz ruling out immediate reforms. The newly elected Bundestag is expected to resist increased military funding, as far-left and far-right factions hold over a third of seats, forming a potential blocking minority. With only weeks left, Merz faces a tight deadline to secure parliamentary approval for the fund before the new government takes over.

2️⃣ 🇧🇦 🇪🇺 Bosnia & Herzegovina's fragmented governance requires constitutional reform for EU and NATO membership: In March 2024, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) was granted EU negotiating status, marking a formal step toward accession after decades of stagnation. Despite economic potential, institutional inefficiency and entrenched corruption have long hindered progress, with the country’s rigid, ethnically based governance system preventing meaningful reforms. The constitution, rooted in the Dayton Peace Agreement, has been deemed discriminatory by both the BiH Constitutional Court and the European Court of Human Rights, yet authorities have failed to implement necessary changes. Without constitutional reform, BiH remains politically fragile, incapable of meeting EU standards, and vulnerable to demographic shifts that could further destabilise the power balance. New Lines Institute suggests that for lasting progress, domestic and international actors must push for structured, peaceful reform that ensures democratic representation for all citizens.

3️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇷🇼 🇨🇩 UK government to suspend aid, threatens sanctions on Rwanda over M23 support: The UK government has announced it will halt participation in Rwandan-hosted events and suspend most aid to the country over its support for M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Britain also warned of possible sanctions, citing UN reports that Kigali-backed fighters, reinforced by 4,000 Rwandan troops, have seized Goma and Bukavu in their push for control of the mineral-rich eastern DRC. The UK’s Foreign Office called for an end to hostilities, humanitarian access, and Rwanda’s military withdrawal from Congolese territory, pausing trade promotion and defence cooperation. Rwanda insists it is acting in self-defence, accusing the DRC of harbouring perpetrators of the 1994 genocide, while M23 claims to protect Tutsis from persecution—though analysts suggest it may be seeking power in Kinshasa.

4️⃣ 🇾🇪 Ansarullah continue to weather Western reprisals following Red Sea shipping crisis: Since late 2023, Ansarullah—or the Houthi Movement—have strengthened militarily and politically, capitalizing on the Israeli invasion of Gaza to boost recruitment and expand influence in northern Yemen. A constituent of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance,’ they have developed advanced missile, drone, and naval capabilities, enabling long-range strikes on Israel, Western warships, and Red Sea shipping lanes. Despite sustained U.S. and U.K. airstrikes, the group has adapted through decentralized operations and asymmetric warfare, maintaining its ability to disrupt global trade and project regional power. As Yemen’s government remains fractured and Saudi Arabia avoids direct military re-engagement, the Houthis could expand further south, though this risks provoking regional players like the UAE or creating security vacuums exploitable by extremist groups.

5️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇲🇦 Algeria and Morocco’s slow–burning diplomatic crisis escalates: Tensions between Algeria and Morocco have smouldered since Algiers severed diplomatic ties in 2021, citing Rabat’s Israel normalisation and alleged support for Kabylia’s autonomy. While Western Sahara remains a flashpoint, mutual restraint and U.S. engagement have thus far prevented escalation. However, Trump’s 2024 re-election has unsettled both sides, with Morocco hoping for U.S. backing on its Autonomy Plan while Algeria fears further isolation. The International Centre for Dialogue Initiatives assert that if Washington disengages or takes a partisan stance, the risk of conflict could grow, leaving Europe as the last potential stabilising force—if it can coordinate a unified response.

Major Story

🇺🇳 A LANDMARK UN VOTE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS

On 24 February 2025, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with 93 votes in favour, 18 against, and 65 abstentions. However, the most striking development was the United States voting against the measure—aligning itself with Russia for the first time on this issue. Simultaneously, the UN Security Council adopted a US-drafted resolution calling for a swift end to the war but conspicuously omitting any direct condemnation of Moscow. This marked a stark departure from Washington’s previous firm stance on Ukraine.

Moscow’s Gain, Beijing’s Opportunity

For Russia, Washington’s shift represents a significant diplomatic victory, eroding the strong international consensus that had previously isolated Moscow. Yet, the broader consequences may be even more profound in the Asia-Pacific. As China watches Washington soften its position on Ukraine, questions arise over America’s reliability as a security guarantor in the region. For Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, the US response to Ukraine serves as a cautionary tale, prompting reassessments of their own defence strategies.

A New Era of Uncertainty

The recent UN votes underscore a fundamental transformation in US foreign policy, moving away from steadfast alliances toward a more flexible, interest-driven approach. This shift forces US allies to reconsider their own security dependencies, potentially accelerating military build-ups and reshaping global power dynamics. Whether this marks a temporary adjustment or a long-term strategic realignment, one thing is clear: the era of unquestioned US leadership in global security is fading, and a new, more unpredictable order is emerging.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇧🇦 🇷🇺 Bosnian court sentences Dodik amid rising tensions: A Bosnian court has sentenced pro-Russia Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik to one year in prison and barred him from politics for six years over separatist actions, escalating tensions in the volatile region. The verdict, issued after a year-long trial for defying Bosnia’s top international envoy, remains subject to appeal. Dodik, who was absent from court, has vowed to ignore the ruling and warned of “radical measures,” including Republika Srpska’s potential secession. His repeated calls for unification with Serbia, coupled with corruption allegations and pro-Russia policies, previously led to U.S. sanctions, stoking fears of renewed instability in Bosnia, where ethnic divisions persist nearly three decades after the Dayton Accords ended a brutal war.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 International Criminal Court urged to investigate Biden, Blinken: A US-based nonprofit, Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), has called on the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate former President Joe Biden, along with ex-Secretary of State Antony Blinken and former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, for allegedly aiding and abetting Israeli war crimes in Gaza. DAWN’s 172-page submission, backed by ICC-registered lawyers and war crimes experts, argues that these officials knowingly provided military, political, and diplomatic support—amounting to at least $17.9 billion in weapons transfers—despite evidence of grave abuses. DAWN’s director, Sarah Leah Whitson, accused the Biden administration of disregarding clear evidence of atrocities and continuing to supply Israel with unconditional backing, even against internal recommendations to halt arms transfers.