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In South Asia, Pakistan reports killing 33 militants in a Balochistan border clash. Germany, citing concerns over Gaza, has reluctantly suspended certain arms exports to Israel. In Syria, Damascus rejects French-hosted talks with the Kurdish-led SDF, widening their rift.

Our lead story turns to the Horn of Africa, where political fragmentation is undermining Somalia’s hard-won counterinsurgency gains.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 Haiti declares state of emergency as gang violence spreads beyond capital: Haiti has declared a three-month state of emergency across the West, Centre, and Artibonite departments amid escalating gang violence. The government said the measure is vital to combat insecurity and address an agricultural crisis in Artibonite, the nation’s “rice basket,” which has seen surging attacks. Violence intensified after the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, displacing 1.3 million people and killing nearly 4,900 between October 2024 and June 2025, according to the UN. While 90% of Port-au-Prince is under gang control, killings and kidnappings are rising in rural areas. Andre Jonas Vladimir Paraison has been appointed interim police chief, replacing Normil Rameau, as Haiti works with a Kenya-led UN mission. The Transitional Presidential Council, led by Laurent Saint-Cyr, is tasked with organising elections by February 2026.

2️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Sheinbaum rejects U.S. military action in Mexico over cartel threat: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has dismissed speculation that US forces could enter Mexico following reports that President Donald Trump authorised military operations against Latin American drug cartels designated as terrorist organisations. Sheinbaum insisted there was “no risk” of invasion, stressing cooperation without foreign troops on Mexican soil. The US Embassy in Mexico said both nations would use “every tool” to combat trafficking, but Mexico’s foreign ministry rejected any US military role. Trump’s directive, revealed by the New York Times, could enable unilateral strikes abroad, expanding on February’s terrorist designation of major cartels. While Washington frames the move as a security imperative, Mexican analysts warn it risks damaging bilateral ties, undermining cooperation, and misdiagnosing the roots of illicit markets.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Netanyahu defends Gaza City takeover plan, UN warns of “Another Calamity”: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to press ahead with plans to seize Gaza City, defying mounting international criticism and UN warnings that the move risks deepening the humanitarian catastrophe. UN Assistant Secretary-General Miroslav Jenca told the Security Council it would likely cause “further forced displacement, killings, and destruction.” Malnutrition-related deaths under Israel’s blockade continue to rise, while rights groups and humanitarian agencies condemn the GHF aid scheme, which has killed more than 1,370 Palestinians queuing for food since May. Israel denies the existence of famine.

4️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Europe and Ukraine reject Russian cease-fire terms ahead of Alaska summit: European leaders and Ukraine have jointly rebuffed Vladimir Putin’s proposal for a cease-fire in exchange for Kyiv ceding Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk, insisting instead on a framework that protects both Ukraine’s and Europe’s security. The counterproposal—presented to senior U.S. officials—demands a cease-fire before talks, reciprocal territorial withdrawals, and binding security guarantees, potentially including NATO membership for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky denounced Moscow’s plan as “impossible,” warning that surrendering land would reward aggression. Despite U.S. optimism about August’s planned Trump–Putin summit in Alaska, European officials stress that any deal must involve Kyiv directly. They argue that unilateral concessions would leave Putin strengthened and Ukraine exposed, noting his history of breaking cease-fires while offering little in return.

5️⃣ 🇹🇲 🇺🇳 UN conference in Turkmenistan adopts programme to boost development in landlocked nations: The Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDC3) ended in Awaza, Turkmenistan, with delegates adopting the Awaza Political Declaration and endorsing the Awaza Programme of Action (2024–2034). The plan sets out a ten-year framework to accelerate sustainable growth and resilience for the world’s 32 landlocked states, focusing on economic transformation, trade integration, infrastructure, climate adaptation, and financing. Leaders from governments, the UN, and the private sector pledged stronger global solidarity, urging greater investment from development banks and deeper South-South cooperation. Implementation will be coordinated by the UN Office for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries, and Small Island Developing States, with an emphasis on national ownership, measurable results, and accountability.

Major Story

🇸🇴 🇪🇹 🇰🇪 POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION THREATENS SOMALIA’S COUNTERINSURGENCY GAINS

Somalia’s once-promising counter-terrorism gains are faltering as political rivalries sap momentum from its campaign against al-Shabaab. After significant advances in 2022, government offensives slowed in 2024, enabling the militants to regain territory, mount an assassination attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and push closer to Mogadishu. The group’s 2025 Ramadan offensive has seen it seize control of the strategic triangle across Moqokori, Tardo, and Buq-Aqable in central Somalia, enabling it to encircle government positions and sever supply lines. Somalia’s strategy blends military action, socio-economic development, and institution building, supported by the AU, UN, U.S., EU, IGAD, and neighbours such as Kenya and Ethiopia. Yet persistent political instability, resource constraints, and donor dependence undermine its effectiveness.

Elections and the cycle of instability

Since 2012, each electoral cycle has followed a damaging pattern: early-term counterinsurgency gains give way to pre-election political infighting, shifting resources away from security. Election disputes in both 2017 and 2022 triggered violence between government forces and opposition-aligned militias, which al-Shabaab exploited. Now, with the 2026 polls approaching and a contentious constitutional review underway, tensions between the federal government, opposition, and member states like Puntland and Jubaland are again escalating.

Disunity as a strategic gift to al-Shabaab

The replacement of Somalia’s 4.5 clan-based power-sharing formula with a one-person-one-vote system has deepened clan-based grievances, especially among Darod-dominated regions, raising the prospect of electoral boycotts. Efforts at dialogue in June collapsed when key states and opposition figures refused to participate, citing lack of inclusivity. This disunity weakens coordination of security operations, allowing al-Shabaab to reclaim areas such as Moqokori in July and expand its reach. In some liberated areas, governance gaps let the group step in as a parallel authority, providing dispute resolution, collecting taxes, and projecting an image of accountability.

Al-Shabaab’s adaptive strategy

Al-Shabaab has shifted tactically to reduce civilian harm, ease movement of goods and people, and re-establish local administrations, portraying itself as a legitimate governance actor. This approach is winning over some communities and even segments of the elite, embedding the group deeper into clan structures and expanding its influence in urban areas.

If Somalia’s political fragmentation continues, two outcomes are possible: an unlikely full takeover by al-Shabaab, or a more probable scenario where the militants become the dominant de facto authority while a nominal government remains in Mogadishu. Preventing this requires bridging federal–regional divides, engaging the opposition in genuinely inclusive dialogue, and sustaining security momentum before al-Shabaab’s urban expansion becomes entrenched.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Germany reluctantly halts some weapons exports to Israel over Gaza concerns: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has suspended arms exports that could be used in Gaza, though some transfers will continue, with uncertainty over how Israel will prove compliance. Merz said no military equipment “that may be used in the Gaza Strip” would be approved for now, according to the Sweden Herald. The move follows Israel’s new plan to occupy Gaza, which has drawn sharp global criticism. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the measure “will not end this conflict,” while UN rights chief Volker Türk urged the plan be “immediately stopped.” Sweden’s Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard warned it risked violating international law, stressing that altering Gaza’s territory would be unlawful and expressing deep concern over its humanitarian consequences.

2️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 Pakistan says 33 militants killed in Balochistan border clash: Pakistani security forces say they killed 33 militants attempting to cross from Afghanistan into Balochistan’s insurgency-hit Zhob district overnight. The military, referring to the fighters as “Khwarij” — its term for the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) — said the group had backing from India, though it offered no evidence. A search is underway for any remaining insurgents. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif praised the operation, while provincial authorities suspended mobile internet in Balochistan until 31 August for security reasons ahead of Independence Day. Balochistan has long faced separatist and TTP-linked violence, which has surged since the Afghan Taliban’s return to power in 2021.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇫🇷 Syria rejects Paris talks with Kurdish-led SDF as rift deepens: Syria’s new government has refused to attend planned negotiations in Paris with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), insisting any dialogue must take place in Damascus. The move casts doubt on a March integration deal meant to merge the SDF into state institutions after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, though disputes remain over whether SDF fighters join collectively or individually. Tensions escalated after a Kurdish-organised conference called for a decentralised Syrian state—an idea Damascus rejects—while also criticising the government over recent sectarian violence. SANA accused the event of undermining negotiations, while the SDF blamed government-backed forces for over 22 recent attacks in the northeast, warning the assaults erode trust and jeopardise fragile understandings.

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Prisoners of Geography

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The World: A Brief Introduction

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