Hello and welcome back. 

From South Asia, Pakistan has resumed the forced deportation of Afghan refugees despite objections from the UN, while India cautiously re-engages with China following years of tension sparked by Trump tariffs. In Europe, Lithuania has called on NATO to strengthen its air defences after drone incursions from Belarus. Meanwhile in Syria, clashes have erupted between the Kurdish-majority SDF and regime troops, despite a March agreement aimed at integration.

Our lead story analyses Ukraine’s strategic adaptation, asymmetric warfare, and war of attrition in the face of waning Western support.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 China rejects U.S. pressure and defends oil trade with Russia: Despite threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on countries trading with Russia, analysts say China will not halt its energy imports. China views Russian oil as vital to its strategic interest in securing stable resource supplies. Matt Gertken of BCA Research noted that Beijing’s cooperation with Moscow is long-term and unlikely to shift under American pressure. Trump has warned of sanctions if Russia fails to pursue a ceasefire in Ukraine, and secondary sanctions could soon target China, following recent U.S. actions against India. Last year, Russia was China’s largest crude oil supplier, accounting for nearly 20% of its imports. Chinese officials reiterated that national interest guides their energy policy and dismissed tariff threats as economically harmful to all sides.

2️⃣ 🇨🇮 🇷🇺 🇫🇷 President Ouattara’s fourth-term bid risks renewed unrest in Côte d’Ivoire: Côte d’Ivoire heads to a presidential election in October amid mounting unease. President Alassane Ouattara’s decision to seek a fourth term, the exclusion of leading opposition figures, and a disputed electoral system echo the fraught conditions that triggered deadly violence in 2020. No Ivorian presidential race since 1995 has produced a peaceful transfer of power. Regional geopolitics add pressure, as Russia-aligned Sahel states may welcome instability in one of France and the EU’s last strongholds in West Africa. Analysts warn that without immediate dialogue between government and opposition, tensions could spiral into unrest. Analysts also advocate for authorities to restore talks, reintegrate or replace barred candidates, and encourage participation rather than boycotts, as proactive steps now could avert another cycle of political crisis and preserve Côte d’Ivoire’s hard-won economic and security gains.

3️⃣ 🇦🇿 🇦🇲 Azerbaijan and Armenia set to sign peace memorandum in Washington: Azerbaijan and Armenia are set to sign a memorandum of understanding at the White House on Friday, committing to pursue a peace deal, according to regional sources. U.S. President Donald Trump will host Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for the ceremony, which is expected to produce a “letter of intent” rather than a final agreement. Key disputes persist, including Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia amend its constitution and the contentious “Zangezur Corridor,” linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Armenian territory. Armenia rejects any arrangement implying loss of sovereignty. The Washington summit follows months of negotiations since their July meeting in Abu Dhabi and offers Trump a sought-after diplomatic success amid lingering post-Nagorno-Karabakh tensions.

4️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 New Delhi cautiously reopens to Beijing after Trump tariffs: On July 30, President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on Indian imports, escalating trade tensions as India seeks renewed economic engagement with China. After years of frozen ties following the 2020 Galwan clashes, New Delhi and Beijing have cautiously reopened their relationship, restoring border patrols, pilgrimages, and limited business exchanges. India hopes to attract Chinese investment to bolster electronics manufacturing and offset $15 billion in industry losses from post-2020 restrictions. This recalibration reflects both economic pragmatism and geopolitical hedging. Indian strategists perceive Washington moving closer to Beijing and Islamabad, prompting New Delhi to seek balance without compromising core security interests. While pursuing economic cooperation with China, India continues to assert its military readiness and regional priorities, signaling that rapprochement does not equal strategic concession.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Netanyahu mulls total Gaza annexation as atrocities mount and diplomacy falters: Gaza remains in ruins, with starvation and mass death continuing as Israel intensifies its military campaign. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, under pressure to satisfy extremist allies, has revived calls to annex parts of Gaza—an idea gaining traction within his coalition. Ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir openly advocate conquest, while Netanyahu frames total military defeat of Hamas as essential. Though politically divisive in Israel, the plan is unlikely to face serious US opposition, especially with Trump’s return. Meanwhile, France, the UK, and Canada are moving toward recognising Palestinian statehood, exposing Western divisions. Experts warn annexation could destroy even the slightest prospect for peace, while offering Israel access to Gaza’s offshore gas. For Netanyahu, this may be less about strategy than political survival.

Major Story

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 UKRAINE’S STRATEGIC STRUGGLES AMID DWINDLING WESTERN SUPPORT

Russia’s incremental gains in Ukraine, aided by superior manpower and revitalised arms production, signal a persistent offensive rather than an imminent victory. Moscow has adapted its aerial assault strategy, deploying swarms of improved Shahed drones produced domestically, overwhelming Ukrainian air defences and inflicting substantial urban damage. Combined with follow-up missile salvos, these strikes not only degrade infrastructure but also erode civilian morale. Yet despite this momentum, Russia’s inability to secure rapid breakthroughs underlines a central paradox: numerical superiority does not guarantee strategic triumph, especially against a Ukrainian force bolstered by asymmetric tactics and international backing. 

Ukraine’s Strategy: Attrition, Adaptation, and Asymmetry

Faced with a grinding war, Ukraine seeks to raise the costs of Russian aggression. Long-range drone strikes deep into Russian territory, cyberattacks, and sabotage operations demonstrate Kyiv’s strategy of deterrence through disruption. These operations have minimal physical impact but psychological and symbolic significance—temporarily closing Moscow airports and targeting strategic bombers to remind Russians of the war’s reach. Yet Ukraine’s battlefield prospects are constrained by mounting challenges: shortages in air defence systems, recruitment shortfalls, and the inability to launch counteroffensives due to stretched manpower and logistical gaps.

The Western Role: Uncertain Support, Fragile Leverage

The second Trump administration’s approach has shifted from steadfast support to transactional ambivalence. Though previously committed U.S. aid may carry Ukraine into 2026, Trump has declared that future assistance must be purchased by allies, not funded by Washington. Intelligence cooperation has resumed, but diplomatic signals remain erratic—Trump oscillates between pressuring Moscow toward a ceasefire and posturing against allies like India with tariffs. Meanwhile, Europe is scrambling to fill the void. Germany and Denmark have spearheaded arms financing and Ukrainian procurement partnerships, yet broader EU support still falls short of replacing U.S. leadership.

Best-Case Scenarios and Ceasefire Calculations

The most realistic Ukrainian hope is to deny Russia any battlefield advantage during the summer campaign, largely through drone warfare and defensive resilience. A ceasefire would allow Kyiv to regroup and preserve statehood, especially if paired with tighter sanctions and revived European defence aid. Nonetheless, Ukrainians widely distrust any durable peace while Putin remains in power. Increasingly, Kyiv is pivoting from dreams of NATO membership to bilateral military partnerships with NATO states that recognise Ukraine’s strategic value as a buffer against Russian aggression.

Domestic Fractures and Zelenskyy’s Waning Trust

President Zelenskyy retains broad public backing, yet recent moves to weaken anti-corruption bodies triggered Ukraine’s largest protests since 2022. Though he reversed the legislation under pressure, the episode revealed growing discontent with his centralisation of power and the opaque influence of Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak. As war fatigue sets in and Western support wavers, Ukraine’s leaders face the dual burden of holding the front and preserving domestic legitimacy. For many Ukrainians, this war is not just about borders—but the kind of state they hope to emerge from it.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇱🇹 🇧🇾 Lithuania urges NATO to bolster air defences after drone incursions from Belarus: Lithuania has formally requested NATO support to enhance its air defences following two recent drone breaches from Belarus. Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys stressed that protecting NATO’s eastern flank should not fall solely on Lithuania. In a joint letter to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Lithuania’s foreign and defence ministers urged the alliance to reaffirm its commitment to defending all of its territory. One drone, believed to be aimed at Ukraine but diverted by its air defences, crashed on July 28 in a Lithuanian military zone, carrying 2 kg of explosives. Identified as a Gerbera drone—a replica of Iran’s Shahed model used by Russia—it followed an earlier incursion on July 10. NATO responded that it is monitoring the situation and investing in counter-drone capabilities.

2️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 🇺🇳 Pakistan resumes forced deportations of Afghan refugees despite UN concerns: Pakistan has restarted the forced repatriation of Afghan refugees after refusing to extend the stay of 1.4 million Afghans holding expired Proof of Registration (PoR) cards. Authorities say police are conducting targeted checks in Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan, detaining those without valid passports or visas for transport to border crossings. The move comes amid a nationwide crackdown on undocumented foreigners launched in 2023. The UNHCR condemned the expulsions as potential refoulement, warning that abrupt returns could endanger lives and destabilise Afghanistan, already under Taliban rule since 2021. Many Afghans, some born and raised in Pakistan, expressed fear over disrupted education and livelihoods. Islamabad insists the deportations are being conducted “dignifiedly,” even as rights groups urge a voluntary, gradual repatriation process to prevent regional instability.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 SDF clash with Damascus troops despite March integration deal: The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reported clashes with Syrian government troops in Aleppo province, threatening a landmark integration deal signed in March. The agreement, reached after Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, was intended to fold the SDF and Kurdish regional administrations—controlling a quarter of Syria—into state institutions after 14 years of conflict. The SDF accused Damascus of attacking four of its posts in Dayr Hafir and warned it was prepared to respond “with full force.” Tensions have escalated since the weekend, when each side blamed the other for attacks around Manbij. The SDF, once Washington’s key partner against the Islamic State, now faces the challenge of unifying with a government it continues to confront on the battlefield.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics