Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 UN climate talks collapse

📰 UN climate talks collapse

and Libya’s oil in crisis

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 16, 2024

Hello,

The Sahel and Middle East dominate today’s headlines: JNIM launches a deadly attack at the Niger–Burkina Faso border, the UN Envoy calls for sanctions relief in Syria, fighting halts operations at a key Libyan oil refinery in the west, and Israel’s escalating activity in Syria intensifies regional tensions.

Our main story examines the evolving relationship between China and Russia, shaped by a complex history of rivalry and cooperation.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 Breakdown of UN climate talks poses threat to international stability: After two weeks of U.N.-sponsored negotiations in Riyadh, 197 nations failed to agree on a global plan to address worsening droughts exacerbated by climate change. The biennial COP 16 talks aimed to create legally binding mandates requiring nations to fund early warning systems and develop resilient infrastructure, particularly in Africa, which faces the most severe impacts. A report from the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification warned that if warming trends persist, nearly five billion people could experience land drying by the end of the century—up from a quarter of the global population today—which would have dire repercussions for international security.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 Israel bombards Syria, expands occupation of Golan Heights: Israel conducted extensive airstrikes across Syria over the weekend, apparently targeting assets linked to Syria’s missile and chemical weapons programs. The attacks come as tensions rise over Israeli plans to expand settlements in the occupied Golan Heights, a move condemned by Saudi Arabia, European nations, and the UN as violations of Syria’s sovereignty. Despite Syrian rebel leader al-Jolani asserting his group—Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—has no interest in engaging with Israel, Israeli officials justified their actions as necessary to counter security threats near the border. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has engaged regional allies to shape Syria’s future and has reportedly opened dialogue with HTS to discuss governance in a post-Assad scenario.

3️⃣ 🇲🇱 🇳🇪 🇧🇫 Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso reaffirm decision to leave ECOWAS ‘irreversible’: Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger will officially exit the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on January 29 but have been granted a six-month grace period until July 29 to reconsider their decision. They have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and assured ECOWAS citizens that their territories will remain visa-free to safeguard regional trade and movement. Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, leading mediation efforts, expressed cautious optimism about maintaining relations amid growing security challenges in the region, which faces escalating threats from al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS). The departure underscores a geopolitical shift, with the Sahel governments aligning closer to Russia and distancing from France and traditional allies.

4️⃣ 🇱🇾 Fighting forces shutdown of crucial west Libyan oil refinery: The Zawiya refinery, Libya’s largest oil facility in the west, was forced to shut down on December 15 following heavy clashes between local armed groups. Fires erupted at several storage tanks but were later extinguished by civil defence teams. The National Oil Corporation (NOC) declared a state of force majeure, citing significant damage to the refinery, which processes over 120,000 barrels per day and serves as a critical hub for fuel supply in western Libya. While the NOC assured uninterrupted fuel distribution, the refinery's closure underscores ongoing instability. Zawiya frequently experiences violent disputes among rival factions, with recent fighting resulting in one death and ten injuries.

5️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 DR Congo–Rwanda peace talks collapse: Leaders of the DRC and Rwanda were scheduled to meet on Sunday to address the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC. However, the talks quickly collapsed, reportedly over Rwanda’s request for the DRC to hold direct negotiations with the M23 militia. While Rwandan President Paul Kagame was expected to attend discussions in Angola, his presence remained uncertain. Instead, the African Union mediator held private talks with the DRC’s president. Despite a ceasefire brokered by Angola in August, clashes between DRC forces and the Rwanda-backed M23 militia have continued, with the latter seizing significant territory. The violence has escalated into a humanitarian crisis, displacing thousands and worsening conditions on the ground.

Major Story

🇨🇳 DELINEATING THE CHINA-RUSSIA RELATIONSHIP 🇷🇺

China and Russia’s relationship is shaped by a long history of both rivalry and cooperation, with recent ties largely driven by shared opposition to U.S. influence, rather than any natural alignment. Despite a 2,600-mile border and past ideological differences over communist doctrine, their collaboration has grown since the early 2000s, supported by economic and security interests. Yet, their partnership remains uneven, marked by asymmetrical economic links, limited military interoperability, and contrasting global visions.

Strategic Alignment and Shared Interests

While not formal allies, China and Russia have increasingly aligned against Western powers, particularly the U.S. The 2022 declaration of a “no limits” partnership between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, coupled with over 40 meetings between the two leaders, has sparked concerns in the West. Both countries promote initiatives like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to challenge U.S. dominance, with BRICS evolving into a platform for de-dollarization and amplifying influence in the Global South.

Political Systems and Global Ambitions

Both nations share authoritarian characteristics, curbing dissent and projecting influence abroad. However, their strategies differ: China aims to reform global systems to benefit its interests, while Russia often undermines international norms, as seen in its election interference efforts. This divergence underscores the pragmatic, yet limited, nature of their relationship.

Economic and Military Cooperation

The economic ties between China and Russia are complementary but imbalanced. China dominates trade, and despite growing economic reliance, particularly due to Western sanctions on Russia, projects like the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline have encountered delays. Military cooperation, including joint exercises and missile warning system collaboration, has increased, but China’s reduced reliance on Russian arms signals a growing distance in defense matters.

Challenges and Future Prospects

Distrust and historical grievances still complicate the relationship, with both countries pursuing divergent interests in areas like Central Asia. The ongoing Ukraine conflict places China in a precarious position, balancing diplomatic support for Russia while avoiding Western backlash. Despite their strengthened ties, the partnership is driven by pragmatism rather than strategic alignment, limiting its long-term potential.

Promotion

_{Unlock Exclusive Insights with Our Premium Weekly Newsletter}
_{Discover Stories That Flew Under the Radar}
_{Explore Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones}
_{Support the Channel & Help Us Grow an Exclusive Newsletter Community}

Subscribe to Our Premium Newsletter

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇸🇾 UN Envoy requests Syria sanctions relief: UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen has called for the swift lifting of Western sanctions on Syria following the removal of President Bashar al-Assad. Speaking in Damascus, Pedersen emphasized the need for international support to rebuild the war-torn country, where nearly half a million people have died and millions remain displaced after over a decade of conflict. He stressed the importance of initiating a Syrian-led political process inclusive of all factions to establish a permanent government. While Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), designated a terrorist group by the US, leads the interim administration, Washington is reportedly reconsidering this designation, which could impact reconstruction efforts.

2️⃣ 🇳🇪 🇧🇫 JNIM orchestrates deadly attack on Niger–Burkina Faso border: Niger's defence ministry confirmed on Saturday that 39 civilians, including children, were killed in two separate attacks in the western communities of Libiri and Kokorou, near the border with Burkina Faso. The assaults, carried out between December 12 and 14, were described as "barbaric acts" targeting defenceless populations amidst ongoing military operations against insurgents. The attacks occurred in the Tera border region, a hotspot for jihadist activity where Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) fighters linked to the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda have intensified assaults. This region, straddling Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, has long been plagued by violence, including a recent attack on a goods convoy that claimed 21 lives on December 7.