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📰 UN in deadlock over Haiti

📰 UN in deadlock over Haiti

and EU unveils Black Sea strategy

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
May 29, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In Europe, Albania bolsters its international profile through NATO cooperation, meanwhile, the EU unveils a new Black Sea strategy aimed at countering Russian influence and strengthening transport and defence infrastructure. Elsewhere, South Africa’s government pushes back against claims of regulatory bias, affirming it will not revise policy to accommodate Elon Musk’s Starlink network.

Today’s lead story examines how cross-strait tensions escalate as Taiwan’s Lai faces off with a more coercive Beijing, raising the stakes for regional stability.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 🇺🇸 UN Security Council deadlocked as Haiti crisis deepens, U.S. position unclear: As Haiti’s humanitarian crisis escalates—with over half the population facing severe food insecurity and armed groups expanding control—the UN Security Council convened behind closed doors to assess response options. The meeting, requested by the ten elected members (E10), follows a February proposal from the Secretary-General urging logistical UN support for the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission. However, divisions persist. The U.S., Haiti’s main MSS funder, has yet to clarify its stance, stalling progress, while Russia and China remain sceptical of the initiative. Some Council members are urging urgent action, but financial shortfalls and strategic disagreements—particularly regarding burden-sharing and peacekeeping feasibility—have left the Council paralysed. Meanwhile, Washington is weighing a potential role for the Organization of American States, but insists it cannot bear the financial burden alone.

2️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇫🇷 🇪🇺 Algeria seemingly holds new cards in a fraying relationship with France: Franco-Algerian relations have plunged to a new low, with tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions and economic fallout revealing a shifting power dynamic. Once tethered by coloniality and migration, the balance has subtly tilted in Algiers' favour. Algeria is now leveraging its growing energy clout—supplying nearly 15% of the EU’s gas—and its diversified partnerships with Italy, Turkey, China and others to reduce reliance on France. French exports to Algeria are in decline, while Algiers expands non-hydrocarbon trade and asserts more control over port and import decisions. Meanwhile, security cooperation and migration control remain vital but vulnerable aspects of the relationship. France may have global reach, but its waning influence in the Sahel and internal diplomatic incoherence leave it exposed. If escalation continues, it is Paris—not Algiers—that may suffer the deeper strategic loss.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Trump says he warned Israel against striking Iran: Donald Trump has revealed he urged Israel to hold off on attacking Iran, and also claimed he was close to securing a landmark nuclear deal. The proposed agreement would grant the U.S. unprecedented access to Iran’s nuclear facilities, enabling inspectors to dismantle suspected sites without casualties. Trump framed the plan as allowing inspections “where we can blow up whatever we want, but nobody getting killed.” While the deal may permit continued uranium enrichment—a red line for Tehran—it would be tightly monitored. Iran signalled openness to U.S. inspections but insisted on retaining enrichment rights, triggering backlash after a UK envoy echoed past calls to halt enrichment altogether. Tehran warned such positions breach the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Despite tension, Trump maintains a deal is possible, though a sixth round of talks remains unscheduled.

4️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇷🇴 🇧🇬 EU unveils new Black Sea strategy: The EU has announced a comprehensive Black Sea strategy aimed at enhancing military mobility and infrastructure resilience in response to mounting threats from Russia. “Security in the Black Sea is crucial to Europe’s security,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, highlighting Russia’s war in Ukraine and hybrid maritime attacks as key risks. The plan includes upgrading transport infrastructure—ports, railways, and airports—particularly in Romania and Bulgaria, to enable rapid deployment of troops and equipment. A new Black Sea Maritime Security Hub will improve threat detection and protect vital infrastructure. Commissioner Marta Kos noted the Black Sea’s strategic role linking Europe to the South Caucasus and Central Asia, and pledged investments in energy, trade, and climate resilience. Targeted partnerships include Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇾🇪 Israel strikes Sana’a airport: Israeli airstrikes have destroyed the final operational aircraft at Sanaa International Airport, according to Israeli and Yemeni officials, marking a sharp escalation in ongoing hostilities between Israel and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Multiple strikes targeted a Yemenia Airways plane and the runway, just weeks after a prior attack had already severely damaged airport infrastructure. Al-Masirah TV and airport director Khaled al-Shaief confirmed the plane, due to carry Hajj pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, was hit. Israel’s defence minister said the aircraft was used by Houthi operatives to facilitate attacks on Israel. The Houthis, aligned with Palestinian causes, have launched missile and drone strikes against Israel and Red Sea shipping since November 2023. UN envoy Hans Grundberg warned the escalation threatens Yemen’s fragile stability, as ceasefire efforts falter and regional tensions deepen.

Major Story

🇹🇼 🇨🇳 CROSS-STRAIT TENSIONS ESCALATE AS TAIWAN’S LAI FACES OFF WITH A MORE COERCIVE BEIJING

One year into Lai Ching-te’s presidency, cross-strait tensions are intensifying. Lai’s administration has adopted firmer language asserting Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty and introduced countermeasures against Chinese infiltration—moves that have unsettled Beijing. President Lai, breaking with his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen’s strategic ambiguity, now routinely describes China as a “hostile foreign force” and rejects subordination to Beijing. While this stance reflects rising Taiwanese public support for distinct identity, it has prompted sharper Chinese military manoeuvres, including daily incursions into Taiwan’s airspace and frequent blockade-style drills. Beijing frames these as deterrence, practice, and psychological warfare—signalling capacity and intent.

Lai’s firmer posture also comes amid Chinese grey-zone tactics, such as espionage and intimidation of Taiwanese travellers. In response, Taipei has launched legislation to counter infiltration and harden national security. Yet the escalatory cycle raises risks of military accidents and miscalculation, especially given uncertain U.S. policy signals.

Despite rising pressure, there are modest openings for de-escalation. Lai recently adopted a more moderate tone on cross-strait relations, and Beijing’s rhetorical response—rather than another military exercise—suggests both sides may recognise the peril of unchecked escalation. Mutual restraint, confidence-building through informal exchanges, and a revival of strategic ambiguity could help stabilise relations in the near term.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇿🇦 South Africa is not changing policy to suit Musk’s starlink, minister says: South Africa will not exempt Elon Musk’s Starlink from telecom equity requirements, Communications Minister Solly Malatsi told Parliament, rejecting claims of political interference after President Ramaphosa’s recent U.S. visit. Current law mandates that foreign telecom firms sell 30% of local subsidiaries to historically disadvantaged groups. Proposed changes—allowing alternative infrastructure investments in lieu of equity transfer—sparked speculation that Starlink was being favoured. Malatsi denied any link, saying the review began months earlier and aims to improve competition. “There is no conspiracy,” he said. Critics questioned whether the shift undercuts economic empowerment. Submissions on the draft policy are open for 30 days. Musk has claimed South Africa blocks Starlink because he is White, though officials say no formal licence application has been made.

2️⃣ 🇦🇱 Albania strengthens global standing through NATO, diplomacy, and regional leadership: Since joining NATO in 2009, Albania has transformed its foreign policy from post-isolation recovery to proactive regional and global engagement. NATO membership has reshaped its security architecture, fostering defense reform and greater alignment with Euro-Atlantic structures. With rising defense spending and participation in key NATO missions, including in Kosovo and Iraq, Albania has become a stabilising presence in the Western Balkans. While its military capacity remains limited, Tirana leverages its strategic geography through initiatives like the Kuçova airbase and proposed naval projects. Albania has also sought greater diplomatic clout, hosting summits and mediating in regional tensions. Its tenure on the UN Security Council (2022–23) elevated its profile as a vocal supporter of Ukraine and champion of human rights.