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📰 UN nuclear chief to visit Tehran

📰 UN nuclear chief to visit Tehran

and US strikes Iran-backed militias

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 12, 2024

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Today in the Middle East, the U.S. has launched strikes on Iran-backed militias in Syria, while the UN's nuclear chief prepares for talks in Tehran about Iran’s nuclear program. Tensions are also mounting on the Korean Peninsula, with Seoul accusing Pyongyang of GPS interference targeting its naval units, and in Haiti, where the prime minister’s recent dismissal has deepened political instability.

Our main story examines key priorities for this year’s COP summit, including securing climate finance, fostering cooperation on carbon markets, and addressing how geopolitical rivalries detract from urgent climate action.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇷 UN nuclear watchdog chief heads to Tehran to discuss Iran’s nuclear program: The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mariano Grossi, is set to visit Iran to discuss its nuclear program amid rising Middle East tensions, particularly the Israel-Hamas conflict and uncertainty about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s approach to Iran. Grossi’s talks will focus on a March 2023 agreement aimed at enhancing cooperation between Iran and the IAEA, especially regarding the resolution of issues tied to undeclared nuclear activities and expanded monitoring. This visit follows earlier discussions with Iranian officials at the UN General Assembly. While Iran’s nuclear program advances—including uranium enrichment up to 60%—Grossi has warned of potential nuclear weapon capabilities. With Trump’s return to office, Iran faces divided views on future relations with the U.S.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 EU ambassador to Beijing expresses intention to avoid Europe-China trade war: Eager to avoid a trade war with China, Jorge Toledo—the EU's ambassador to China—has conceded that after five years of negotiations, progress has been minimal. He expressed growing concerns over the lack of fair market access for European medical devices in China, revealing that European manufacturers are being discriminated against in public procurement. Tensions between the two sides have escalated recently, with the EU launching an investigation into Chinese electric vehicle imports, while China responded by probing EU pork and dairy exports and restricting brandy imports. Last week, the EU imposed new tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese EVs. Toledo emphasised that the EU is not seeking conflict but rather transparency and a level playing field in trade.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇺🇸 U.S. attacks Iran-allied militias in Syria: The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed strikes on nine targets across two locations in Syria following recent attacks on U.S. personnel in the region. These strikes aimed to reduce the operational capability of Iran-backed groups. “We will not tolerate attacks on U.S. and coalition partners in the region,” stated CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, emphasising ongoing measures to safeguard personnel. The U.S. occasionally targets Iranian-aligned forces in Syria and Iraq, conducting airstrikes in February against over 85 sites tied to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and allied militias. With about 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq, U.S. forces continue to engage in countering an Islamic State resurgence, while recent military deployments aim to deter Iranian escalation amid the Israel-Hamas conflict.

4️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇹🇷 Turkiye conducts drone strikes on PKK-held parts of Northern Iraq: Turkish drone strikes have killed five members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq, according to Iraqi Kurdistan's counter-terrorism service and local security sources. The first strike targeted a vehicle near Dohuk, killing three, including a senior PKK official. A second strike on Sunday targeted a vehicle in Sinjar, killing two fighters from the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS), a PKK-affiliated militia. Turkiye frequently conducts airstrikes in northern Iraq, targeting PKK militants. The PKK has been involved in an insurgency against Turkiye since 1984, initially aiming for an independent Kurdish state, but later shifting its goal to seeking greater Kurdish rights and autonomy within Turkiye.

5️⃣ 🇮🇩 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Indonesia’s new president asserts non-alignment, calls for ‘collaboration with China’ ahead of Washington visit: Indonesia’s new president, Prabowo Subianto, emphasised collaboration over confrontation with China after signing $10 billion in new agreements at a business forum in Beijing on Sunday. Speaking at the forum, Subianto expressed his desire for Indonesia to contribute to China’s rise as both an economic and civilizational power. "Collaboration, not confrontation, is the path to peace and prosperity," he said. Subianto is concluding the first leg of his inaugural overseas trip, which includes visits to the U.S., Peru, and Brazil for the APEC and G20 summits. During his meeting with President Xi Jinping, the two leaders agreed to strengthen ties, adding security as a new pillar of their cooperation and planning a joint foreign and defence ministers' meeting for 2025. Subianto reiterated Indonesia’s long standing nonalignment and respect for all major global powers.

Major Story

🇦🇿 COP29 CONVENES IN BAKU: WHAT TO EXPECT

The upcoming COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, marks a crucial moment in the global response to climate change, as natural disasters and rising emissions intensify the urgency for effective international cooperation.

Primary Focus: Climate Finance

Labelled the “Finance COP,” COP29’s priority is to secure significant climate financing commitments. Wealthy nations originally pledged $100 billion annually to help developing countries transition to clean energy and strengthen climate resilience, but contributions have consistently fallen short. New funding goals and private-sector engagement are essential to drive global renewable investments. COP29 will also address financing for loss and damage—a critical step following the establishment of a fund for vulnerable nations, though the current $700 million allocation is far below projected needs.

Geopolitical Tensions and the Trump Factor

The re-election of Donald Trump—a climate change sceptic—casts a shadow over global climate efforts, potentially affecting U.S. participation. Additionally, geopoliticking from the Middle East to Ukraine threatens to overshadow climate priorities. To mitigate this, Azerbaijan has called for a temporary global “truce” during COP29.

National Emission Targets on the Horizon

This summit serves as the final international platform before countries submit their updated emission reduction targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, due in February 2025. Key players like Brazil and the UAE are expected to announce new commitments, which could catalyse broader action.

Defining Success at COP29

Success hinges on securing robust climate finance commitments, achieving progress in carbon market cooperation, and advancing emission reduction goals. The challenge remains formidable, but decisive outcomes at COP29 could set a pivotal course toward limiting global warming and accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇭🇹 Haitian prime minister dismissed, amid escalating instability: Haiti's interim government has appointed businessman Alix Didier Fils-Aimé as the new prime minister, replacing Garry Conille, according to a decree signed on Sunday by the transitional council. Fils-Aimé, a former president of the Haitian Chamber of Industry and Commerce, previously ran for the Senate in 2015 and had been considered for the interim prime minister position before Conille took over. Conille, who served only six months, faced conflicts with the transitional council, which has struggled with internal rivalries and corruption accusations. The council, formed in April, aims to restore democratic governance amid escalating gang violence and political instability. The assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021 and the resignation of Conille's predecessor Ariel Henry earlier this year have intensified the crisis.

2️⃣ 🇯🇵 Shigeru Ishiba re-elected as Japanese prime minister: Japan's parliament re-elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Monday, despite a significant loss for his ruling coalition in the recent election—the worst in over a decade. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, Komeito, lost their majority in the lower house amid public dissatisfaction over financial scandals and the government’s perceived lacklustre responses to pressing issues. In a rare parliamentary runoff, Ishiba won against opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda, securing 221-160 votes. Most cabinet members will retain their posts, although Ishiba must replace three affected by the election. Facing a divided parliament, he now seeks cooperation with additional parties to stabilise his government. Ishiba’s focus includes navigating rising opposition, particularly the Democratic Party for the People, led by Yuichiro Tamaki, who appeals to young and low-income voters.

3️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇰🇵 Seoul accuses Pyongyang of GPS attacks on its naval units: North Korea carried out GPS jamming attacks on Friday and Saturday, disrupting operations of several ships and civilian aircraft in South Korea, according to Seoul’s military. This incident follows a North Korean test launch of its most advanced solid-fuel ICBM missile last week and comes amid allegations that North Korean soldiers were sent to assist Russia in the Ukraine conflict. In response, South Korea launched its own ballistic missile into the sea on Friday, demonstrating its readiness to counter any North Korean provocations. The South’s military warned ships and aircraft operating in the Yellow Sea to be cautious of further GPS jamming attacks and called on North Korea to cease its provocations, threatening accountability for any resulting consequences. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain at their highest in years.