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📰 UN warns of Haiti's collapse

📰 UN warns of Haiti's collapse

and Sudan's war moves westward

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 22, 2025

Hello,

Today, Iraq is in the spotlight as a proposed trilateral gas swap promises a sanctions-resistant energy solution, while Baghdad’s invitation to Syria’s interim president al-Sharaa sparks friction within the country’s Shi’a political bloc. Meanwhile, major shifts on the battlefield are unfolding in both Sudan and South Sudan.

Today’s lead story examines the United States’ evolving economic strategy toward China, exploring its decoupling efforts, industrial dependencies, and long-term competitiveness agenda.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇭🇹 UN warns of Haiti's imminent collapse: Haiti is teetering on the brink of collapse as rampant gang violence escalates, warned UN Special Representative María Isabel Salvador, calling the situation a “point of no return.” She urged urgent international support, citing widespread insecurity, cholera outbreaks, and gender-based violence, particularly in Port-au-Prince. Armed gangs now control large parts of the country, fueling murders, kidnappings, and clashes over territory. Despite the presence of a UN-backed, Kenyan-led security force, the mission remains critically understaffed, prompting Secretary-General António Guterres to warn that without immediate assistance, the Haitian capital may fall entirely.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇹🇩 🇱🇾 Sudan conflict now centred in Darfur and South Kordofan: As Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) regain much of Khartoum state and push the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) toward southern Omdurman, the conflict is shifting westward and southward. The SAF is preparing for major operations in Darfur while the RSF intensifies efforts to seize El Fasher, the final state capital in Darfur not under its control. Both sides rely on regional militias and foreign backing—SAF drawing from established local alliances, and RSF mobilising fighters from Chad, Libya, and South Sudan. With the RSF allying with SPLM-N to regroup in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, and with clashes erupting in South Sudanese border areas, there is growing risk of regional spillover. The war’s trajectory hinges on how each side manages external support, internal cohesion, and control over contested terrain.

3️⃣ 🇸🇸 South Sudan’s military recaptures key town from White Army militia: South Sudan’s military has reclaimed the strategic town of Nasir in Upper Nile state, previously seized in March by the White Army, an ethnic Nuer militia allegedly linked to First Vice President Riek Machar. Machar, now under house arrest, is accused of backing the militia in an attempted rebellion, escalating fears of renewed ethnic violence. Though his SPLM-IO party denies ties to the group, the situation has deepened the political crisis between him and President Salva Kiir, whose uneasy power-sharing arrangement was forged in a 2018 peace deal. Nasir was reportedly retaken without resistance, though clashes nearby in Thuluc left 17 dead. Uganda, having deployed troops to secure Juba, claims to have killed 1,500 White Army fighters, heightening the regional dimension of the conflict.

4️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇺🇸 Strategic defence—not dependence—is Australia’s best Option, say experts: For over a century, Australia has relied on great powers—first Britain, then the United States—for its defence. Agreements like AUKUS have further entrenched this dependency, tying Australia to U.S. strategic priorities and costly military hardware. Yet an alternative approach rooted in strategic autonomy exists. By adopting a “strategic defensive” doctrine—focused on denying adversaries success rather than projecting power—Australia could better leverage its geography and invest in cost-effective tools like long-range missiles, drones, and sensor networks. This would enable a robust, independent deterrent without the financial burden of large warships or entanglement in foreign conflicts.

5️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇮🇳 EU capitalises on U.S. trade volatility: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has positioned the EU as a dependable alternative for global trade, as many countries seek stability in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff policies. Without directly naming Trump, von der Leyen told POLITICO that in a rapidly shifting world order, nations including India, Canada, and the UAE are seeking partnerships with the EU, drawn by its predictability and shared values. The EU continues to pay a 10% U.S. tariff, plus 25% on steel, aluminum, and car exports, while Trump’s tariffs have roiled markets and risk shrinking global trade by 1.5%, according to the WTO. Meanwhile, von der Leyen emphasized growing public confidence in the EU and its steady leadership in turbulent times.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 INSIDE THE WASHINGTON’S CHINA ECONOMIC STRATEGY

President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods—some exceeding 145%—mark a dramatic shift in U.S.-China economic policy. While the goal of reducing dependence on a strategic rival is valid, the execution lacks nuance. Broad, punitive measures risk stagflation, disrupt supply chains, and fail to address the core issue: the U.S.’s vulnerability in critical sectors like semiconductors and biotechnology.

Strategic Decoupling, Not Economic Isolation

Decoupling should focus on areas vital to national security and technological competitiveness. The U.S. need not domestically produce all consumer goods but must secure supply chains for advanced technologies. This means supporting legislation-based tariffs, targeted investment, and export controls—developed in coordination with allies.

Workforce and Alliances Matter

Reviving U.S. manufacturing also demands rebuilding a skilled workforce. Generations of disinvestment in vocational education have left a gap that will take years to fill. Simultaneously, tariffs on allies undermine coalition-building essential to countering China. A strategic decoupling plan should include workforce development and allied cooperation.

The Long Game

Economic resilience won’t come from shock therapy. It requires thoughtful, long-term planning that strengthens domestic capacity, preserves global ties, and avoids alienating partners, writes WPR. Trump’s approach identifies the problem but misfires on the solution—what’s needed now is deliberate, targeted strategy.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇸🇾 Baghdad's invitation to al-Sharaa causes tension among Iraqi Shi'a bloc: Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani is under mounting political pressure following his invitation to Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa to attend the upcoming Arab League summit in Baghdad. The move has sparked intense backlash in Iraq’s parliament, where over 50 MPs have petitioned to block Sharaa’s entry. Prominent Shiite leaders—including Kata’ib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq—have condemned the invitation, citing Sharaa’s past ties to Al-Qaeda in Iraq and Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), both designated terrorist organizations. While Iraqi courts have not confirmed an active arrest warrant, senior political figures have threatened to detain Sharaa if he arrives. The controversy highlights the challenge facing Sudani as he attempts to balance Iraq’s regional diplomatic ambitions with deep-seated domestic sensitivities.

2️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇹🇲 🇮🇷 A trilateral gas Swap offers sanctions-proof lifeline for Iraq: Iraq’s energy crisis has intensified after Washington declined to renew a sanctions waiver allowing electricity imports from Iran. With natural gas next in line, Iraq’s reliance on Iranian energy faces new pressure from the US "maximum pressure" campaign targeting Tehran. A proposed gas swap with Iran and Turkmenistan offers a workaround—allowing Iraq to purchase Turkmen gas, which is rerouted via Iran without financial exchanges that could breach sanctions. This approach ensures continued Iraqi supply, benefits Iran logistically, and avoids legal risks, but faces political and contractual hurdles. Still, with infrastructure in place and few short-term alternatives, the deal offers a practical, regionally cooperative path forward—especially as solar and Gulf partnerships remain slow and hampered by technical delays.