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🇺🇸 US expands Russia sanctions

🇺🇸 US expands Russia sanctions

and Hezbollah strikes Northern Israel

Ross Crabtree
June 13, 2024

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily!

Today's headlines are dominated by stories of Russia-Ukraine tensions, alongside Armenia's potential withdrawal from the Moscow-led security bloc.

Meanwhile, the Israel-Hizbollah conflict witnesses the largest attack on Northern Israel since the war's onset, while Argentina grapples with violent protests. Additionally, a report highlights allegations that Ethiopia's 2020-2022 conflict in Tigray constituted genocide, potentially carrying profound geopolitical implications for Ethiopia.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Largest Hizbollah attack on Israel since the beginning of cross-border hostilities: After a targeted Israeli strike killed senior Hizbollah figure Taleb Abdallah (also known as Abu Taleb) and two other fighters in the south Lebanon village of Jouaiyya, the Lebanese group retaliated by launching over 160 missiles at Israel, marking the highest number of rockets fired in a single day since the cross-border hostilities began eight months ago. The Iran-backed Hizbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire since the Gaza war erupted in October, with the steadily escalating violence raising concerns of a larger conflict between these heavily armed adversaries.

2️⃣ 🇦🇲 🇷🇺 Armenia to leave Russian-led security bloc: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced on Wednesday plans to withdraw from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a security alliance of former Soviet states, amidst rising tensions with Russia. The CSTO includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Armenia had already suspended its participation, canceled joint military drills, and avoided CSTO summits. During a parliamentary session, Pashinyan confirmed Armenia's intent to leave the CSTO, stating, "We will leave. We will decide when to leave. We won’t come back; there is no other way." The exact timing of the departure will be decided later by the government.

3️⃣ 🇦🇷 Violent protests in Argentina amidst austerity measures: Police in Buenos Aires used water cannons and teargas to control protests as Argentina's Senate narrowly approved President Javier Milei's austerity measures. Demonstrators threw sticks, stones, and Molotov cocktails at police, overturning cars. The Senate voted 37 to 36 in favor of the bill after 11 hours of debate. Lawmakers must still vote on each measure individually in a session expected to continue overnight. At the invitation of Italy’s prime minister Meloni, Milei will attend the G7 conference later this week.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Accusations leveled against Russia over starvation tactics in Mariupol: A new analysis submitted to the International Criminal Court (ICC) accuses Russia of employing deliberate starvation tactics during the 85-day siege of Mariupol in early 2022, constituting a war crime. This conclusion is central to a dossier prepared by Global Rights Compliance, in collaboration with the Ukrainian government, which contends that Russian leaders intended to kill and harm a large number of civilians. The siege, which occurred at the start of the war in Ukraine, resulted in an estimated 22,000 civilian deaths. Within days, Mariupol's residents were left without water, gas, or electricity as temperatures dropped below -10°C.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 IDF land, sea and air strikes on designated safe zone in Gaza: Israel’s military has denied reports of strikes in the humanitarian zone of al-Mawasi near Rafah, despite Wafa news agency’s claims of air, artillery, and naval attacks in the area. US defense think tanks, ISW and the Critical Threats Project, reported that Israel warned the International Committee of the Red Cross about upcoming attacks on western Rafah.

Major Story

🇪🇹 PRESSURE MOUNTS ON ETHIOPIAN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AFTER NEW TIGRAY GENOCIDE INQUIRY

Overview

The Tigray War in Ethiopia has claimed the lives of over 400,000 soldiers and up to 300,000 civilians, making it the deadliest armed conflict of the 21st century and one of the most devastating since the end of the Cold War. Despite the staggering human toll, this conflict remains largely overlooked by the international community. There is a troubling pattern where initial efforts to address the crisis are followed by a swift retreat from sustained engagement.

EU, US relations with Addis Ababa resume

The disbandment of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE) before completing its investigation underscores the incomplete response to the crisis. Meanwhile, the United States, while acknowledging the deaths of over half a million people and the commission of serious crimes including humanity and war crimes, has opted to reinstate financial and economic aid to pre-war levels. Similarly, the EU has resumed its $680 million development strategy with Ethiopia, despite ongoing concerns about the lack of accountability for widespread abuses in the region.

Breaches of international law

While previous reports have made similar findings on key factual allegations, the New Lines Institute report, authored by a group of international legal experts, uniquely applies these findings to the Genocide Convention, urging corresponding action.

The report establishes a credible basis to believe that all parties involved in the conflict, including Ethiopian and allied forces as well as Tigrayan forces, committed war crimes. Specifically, Ethiopian National Defense Force members, Eritrean Defense Forces, Amhara Special Forces, and others associated with the Ethiopian government are implicated in crimes against humanity directed at Tigrayans, alongside allegations of genocide.

The genocide allegations encompass killings, severe physical and mental harm, efforts to obstruct childbirth, and deliberate actions to create conditions aimed at destroying the Tigrayan population. Additionally, the report identifies individuals who allegedly made statements amounting to direct and public incitement to commit genocide.

Genocide Convention Article IX

Regardless of whether these actions were part of an orchestrated plan or received support at senior levels, Ethiopia, as a State party to the Genocide Convention, was obligated to prevent and punish genocidal acts. Consequently, the international community faces a moral imperative to respond, potentially including States initiating proceedings at the International Court of Justice under Article IX of the Genocide Convention. Furthermore, States and the international community should pursue avenues for an international, impartial, and independent criminal investigation, utilize universal jurisdiction where feasible, and thereby ensure justice for the multitude of human rights violations perpetrated in Tigray.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 Steady US Fed rate may allow for policy ‘loosening’: The Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged and signaled only one cut by year’s end. Following a two-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) removed two expected rate reductions and suggested a higher long-term interest rate. New forecasts show optimism that inflation is moving toward the 2 percent target, allowing potential easing later this year. The statement noted, "Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated," and mentioned "modest further progress" towards the 2 percent goal.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 US expands Russia sanctions: Ahead of the G7 summit in Italy, the United States announced a new sanctions package targeting over 300 individuals and institutions supporting Russia's war against Ukraine, including several Chinese companies. These sanctions aim to curb entities helping Russia bypass previous sanctions and produce battlefield materials, according to the US State Department. The measures also target those involved in the abduction and re-education of Ukrainian children. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized that the US remains committed to disrupting networks that support Russia's military industry and to preventing Russia from leveraging the international financial system for its war efforts.

3️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 Sunak earmarks £240m for Kyiv: During what may be his final G7 summit, the prime minister will reaffirm the UK's unwavering support for Ukraine amid the ongoing war, stating the country stands "whatever it takes." This commitment is part of a £2.5 billion military aid package to Ukraine for this year. Agreed upon by Mr. Sunak during his January visit to Kyiv, the UK-Ukraine security deal includes the largest drone delivery by any nation.