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📰 US missiles hit Russia

📰 US missiles hit Russia

and Lula assassination plot uncovered

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 22, 2024

Hello and welcome back.

In the past 24 hours, Ukraine has launched its first round of ATACMS missiles, heightening concerns about the potential for nuclear escalation. Meanwhile, significant progress appears to have been made on the Hizbollah-Israel ceasefire negotiations.

Today's main story delves into the ongoing Communist rebellion in the Philippines, which has persisted over the course of five decades, claiming at least 40,000 lives.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇺🇸 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 UN Security Council resolution for Gaza ceasefire vetoed by the U.S: Washington has vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for an "immediate, unconditional, and permanent" ceasefire in Gaza, where Israeli airstrikes continue. The veto on Wednesday came as the other 14 council members supported the measure. This marks the fourth time the Biden administration has blocked a ceasefire resolution since Israel’s military campaign began in October 2023. While the proposal also urged the release of hostages held in Gaza, Washington opposed its call for an "unconditional" ceasefire. Deputy U.S. envoy Robert Wood argued that achieving a lasting resolution requires linking a ceasefire to the hostages' release. "These two urgent goals are inextricably linked," Wood stated. "This resolution abandoned that necessity, and for that reason, the United States could not support it."

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇧🇷 Xi commits support to the ‘Global South’: At the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled measures to advance global development, emphasising China's commitment to the Belt and Road Initiative and a new joint technology project for the Global South. Xi announced the "Open Science International Cooperation Initiative," a partnership with Brazil, South Africa, and the African Union, to ensure technological progress benefits developing nations. He projected China’s imports from these countries to exceed $8 trillion by 2030. Xi also engaged in bilateral diplomacy, meeting British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Starmer advocated for "consistent, respectful" relations while raising human rights concerns, including the trial of British national Jimmy Lai. Xi expressed optimism about improving ties with both nations. Following the summit, Xi will visit Brazil to commemorate 50 years of diplomatic relations.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇳 Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to ‘near weapons-grade levels,’ says UN: The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, has reported a significant increase in Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, raising global concern. As of 11 May, Iran possesses 142.1 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity—just short of weapons-grade levels—a 20.6-kilogram increase since February. The IAEA defines 42 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% as sufficient for one atomic weapon if further refined to 90%. Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile has risen to 6,201.3 kilograms, up 675.8 kilograms since the last report. This development coincides with heightened Middle East tensions amid the Israeli onslaught in Gaza and Lebanon. Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, but IAEA chief Rafael Grossi warns Tehran could produce several nuclear weapons if it chose, with concerns about potential undisclosed enrichment activities.

4️⃣ 🇸🇪 🇩🇰 🇨🇳 Swedish coast guard suspects Chinese vessel of subterranean cable sabotage: Swedish authorities are investigating the suspected sabotage of two undersea fibre-optic cables in the Baltic Sea, with a Chinese cargo ship, Yi Peng 3, under scrutiny. Beginning its voyage in Russian waters, the ship passed near the severed cables between Sweden, Lithuania, Finland and Germany on the suspected dates of the attack. Danish naval vessels have been shadowing the ship since it entered waters between Denmark and Sweden. Sweden’s National Operative Department confirmed the ship is of interest but cautioned that other vessels may also be involved. Swedish police and coast guard units are conducting surveillance and evidence collection at the damaged cables’ sites. China’s foreign ministry stated that it requires its vessels to comply with international laws. Tracking data shows the ship last docked in Ust-Luga, Russia, on 15 November before stopping in the Kattegat strait this week.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 Washington announces recognition of Venezuela’s opposition candidate, declaring Maduro’s administration invalid: The U.S. government has officially recognized Edmundo González Urrutia as Venezuela's "president-elect," months after Nicolás Maduro claimed victory in the disputed July election. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the decision on X, urging respect for the Venezuelan electorate's will. While the Biden administration previously noted González's lead in the vote, this marks its first formal acknowledgment of his presidency. González, who recently fled to Spain, alleged he was coerced into signing a letter recognising Maduro as president to secure his departure from Venezuela. Maduro's loyalist-controlled electoral council declared him the winner without providing detailed vote counts. However, opposition data from 80% of voting machines reportedly showed González secured double Maduro's votes. Meanwhile, Maduro has hinted at improving ties with the U.S., raising speculation of potential diplomatic shifts.

Major Story

🇵🇭 INSIDE PHILIPPINES’ COMMUNIST REBELLION

The communist insurgency in the Philippines—led by the New People’s Army (NPA)—has persisted for over five decades, claiming at least 40,000 lives. While the movement’s influence has waned significantly from its peak in the 1980s—when it boasted 25,000 fighters—the NPA remains active in impoverished areas where systemic inequities fuel discontent. As of late 2024, the Philippine military estimates the number of active guerrillas at around 1,100, with four weakened rebel fronts still operating. As per field research conducted by International Crisis Group’s Georgi Engelbrecht, socioeconomic disparities continue to attract recruits both from deprived regions and urban areas where idealistic youth join the cause.

Structural Inequities: The Root of the Conflict

Negros and Mindanao, long-standing conflict zones, exemplify the deep-rooted inequalities sustaining the insurgency. Negros’ sugar plantations, dominated by a few wealthy landowners, perpetuate economic injustice. Workers, known as sakadas, endure exploitative conditions, earning wages below the national minimum. Agrarian reform efforts since 1988 have been largely ineffective, leaving many small farmers economically vulnerable. The NPA leverages these inequalities to rally support, frequently citing the lack of genuine land reform in its propaganda.

Counterinsurgency and Challenges

The Philippine government has implemented a multidimensional counterinsurgency strategy since 2018, emphasising public investment in neglected areas. To secure funding, communities must first be certified as “insurgency-free” by the military, enabling state agencies to deliver essential services. However, inequality and underdevelopment in remote regions, coupled with continued clashes, highlight the need for deeper reforms.

Path to Resolution

Ending the insurgency will require more than military victories. Genuine progress in addressing poverty, land reform, and economic disparities is critical. Coupled with meaningful negotiations, such efforts could pave the way for lasting peace, breaking the cycle of conflict that has defined this chapter of Philippine history.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇧🇷 Five arrested in Brazil over 2022 Lula assassination plot: Brazil's federal police have arrested four special forces military personnel and a federal agent accused of plotting the assassination of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 15 December 2022. The alleged plan aimed to prevent Lula's inauguration following his electoral victory over far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. The plot also reportedly targeted Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who was already investigating Bolsonaro-linked "hate cabinets" and later led inquiries into the 8 January 2023 attempted coup by Bolsonaro supporters. Moraes recently survived another attack when a bomber killed himself while attempting to target Brazil's Supreme Court. Among those detained is retired general Mario Fernandes, a former executive secretary in Bolsonaro’s administration. The arrests highlight escalating revelations about coup attempts after the 2022 election, including riots, bomb threats, and violent demonstrations.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Ukraine deploys first round of ATACMS missiles, fears of nuclear war grow: Ukraine has reportedly used US-made ATACMS missiles to strike a military facility in Russia’s Bryansk region, according to the Russian defence ministry. Of six missiles launched, five were intercepted, while debris from the sixth caused a fire at an unspecified site. No casualties were reported. The attack follows President Biden's decision to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles against targets deep inside Russia. While Ukraine confirmed targeting a military site approximately 70 miles inside Russian territory, it did not specify the weapons used. However, sources cited by Reuters confirmed the deployment of ATACMS. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking at the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, labelled the strike a deliberate escalation encouraged by the West. Moscow has often made a series of threats to the West over its support for Ukraine throughout the war, often invoking the spectre of a nuclear response. Analysts suggest such attacks could serve Ukraine's tactical aims but are unlikely to alter the broader trajectory of the conflict.

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 🇺🇸Progress made on Hizbollah–Israel ceasefire file, says Hochstein: U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein has reported "positive progress" following talks in Beirut aimed at securing a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah, marking 13 months of hostilities. Hochstein noted that gaps between the two sides have "narrowed," raising hopes for an agreement. Hizbollah has tentatively agreed to a US proposal with some reservations. Key issues under negotiation include Hizbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon and its broader political influence. Israel seeks Hizbollah’s retreat beyond the Litani River as a security buffer and initially demanded unilateral authority to enforce a ceasefire through airstrikes—an idea rejected by Lebanese officials.