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📰 Venezuela enters Guyana’s waters

📰 Venezuela enters Guyana’s waters

and Israel blocks aid

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
March 03, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

Following the heated Oval Office exchange between Trump, Vance, and Zelenskyy, France’s foreign minister suggested that a Ukraine truce would test Putin’s intentions vis-à-vis a peaceful settlement, while India and the EU work to finalise a free trade agreement.

Today’s main story examines geopolitics as a key driver of famine, a crisis worsened by the rollback of USAID and a growing global accountability vacuum.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Trump and Zelenskyy face off over Ukraine deal: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House took an unexpected turn as his meeting with Donald Trump descended into a heated exchange. Trump accused Zelensky of “gambling with World War Three,” while Vice President J.D. Vance criticized the Ukrainian leader for “litigating in front of the American media” and failing to express gratitude. At the heart of the dispute was a proposed "reconstruction investment fund," granting the U.S. a 50% stake in Ukraine’s state-owned natural resource revenues. However, vague terms on ownership and governance left room for further negotiations, which some analysts argue could benefit Ukraine. Yet, the tense encounter raised concerns about the U.S.-Ukraine relationship, European security, and Trump’s broader strategy—leaving Zelensky at risk of losing more than just economic leverage.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 🇮🇶 Kurdish separatists announce ceasefire after 40 year insurgency in Türkiye: The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has announced its intention to comply with a directive from its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, to lay down arms and end its decades-long insurgency against Turkey. In a statement via the Firat News Agency (ANF), the group’s leadership described Ocalan’s call as marking the beginning of a “new historic process” in the region but insisted that a formal congress, led by Ocalan himself, must precede any dissolution. The PKK also demanded improved conditions for Ocalan, including unrestricted communication and physical freedom. While the announcement was broadcast in Kurdish-majority cities, affiliated groups, such as Syria’s YPG, signaled that Ocalan’s call might not extend to them. Analysts suggest that the PKK’s leadership in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains may set its own conditions before fully adhering to Ocalan’s directive.

3️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇬🇾 Venezuelan vessels enter Guyana’s waters: Guyana has launched a military and diplomatic response after a Venezuelan coastguard vessel entered its waters and approached an offshore oil facility, violating international maritime agreements. President Irfaan Ali condemned the incursion, reaffirming Guyana’s internationally recognised borders and summoning Venezuela’s ambassador to formally protest. He also ordered the deployment of air and naval assets while emphasising a commitment to peace. The U.S. and the Organisation of American States (OAS) backed Guyana, warning Venezuela against further provocations. This incident adds to a longstanding territorial dispute over the mineral-rich Essequibo region, which Venezuela has sought to claim, despite its administration by Guyana since 1966. While both nations pledged in 2023 to avoid military escalation, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has continued to threaten annexation, keeping regional tensions high.

4️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇵🇸 Egypt calls for Arab League summit on Gaza reconstruction: The Arab League will convene in Cairo on March 4 to formulate a collective response to U.S. and Israeli actions concerning Gaza. The summit, led by Egypt, aims to present an alternative that upholds Palestinian rights and focuses on Gaza’s reconstruction. This follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s February 5 remarks about taking over Gaza and resettling Palestinians, a plan swiftly rejected by Egypt. Meanwhile, Israel has blocked humanitarian aid and stalled ceasefire negotiations, escalating tensions during Ramadan. The summit will address a phased reconstruction plan, though funding remains a major challenge, with over $50 billion needed. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations are expected to play a key role in financing, while Jordan and Syria will also push their agendas. However, with the ceasefire uncertain, reconstruction efforts may be delayed as diplomatic mediation continues.

5️⃣ 🇳🇮 🇺🇳 Nicaragua withdraws from the UN Human Rights Council: The Nicaraguan government, led by Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, has formally withdrawn from the UN Human Rights Council in response to a damning report by the Group of Human Rights Experts on Nicaragua (GHREN). The report, released a day earlier, implicated the country’s military in crimes against humanity during the 2018 protests. Murillo, in a televised address, dismissed the findings as foreign interference and accused international bodies of manipulating human rights to undermine Nicaragua’s sovereignty. The report details military involvement in the brutal crackdown, including orders from top commanders to “neutralize” protesters using heavy weaponry, leading to the deadliest repression in post-war Nicaragua. It also highlights a military intelligence network coordinating surveillance and persecution of dissidents. Legal experts assert that the Nicaraguan military’s leadership could face international prosecution for crimes against humanity.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇺🇳 GEOPOLITICS AS A PREDICTOR OF FAMINE: USAID AND A GLOBAL ACCOUNTABILITY CRISIS

Geopolitics has become the strongest predictor of famine. The dismantling of the U.S. famine prevention system creates an accountability vacuum, weakening efforts to document and prevent starvation as a weapon of war. The second Trump administration’s drastic reduction in U.S. foreign aid, particularly through the dismantling of USAID, undermines decades of global leadership in food security. This shift not only threatens vulnerable populations but also weakens Washington’s diplomatic influence and the broader humanitarian system.

USAID Cuts and Their Immediate Impact

The Trump administration’s 90-day freeze on foreign aid has severely disrupted famine prevention efforts. The early warning system for food crises, previously funded by USAID, has been largely shut down. In Sudan, where famine looms, aid networks have collapsed. Meanwhile, European donors have not compensated for the shortfall, further crippling international humanitarian efforts.

IPC, FEWS NET, and WFP

The Trump administration’s aid cuts have severely impacted global famine monitoring systems, particularly the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). FEWS NET, once a leading independent famine detection system, has been forced offline, while the IPC remains vulnerable to political interference. The cuts also threaten data collection by agencies like WFP and UNICEF, weakening famine warnings. Without these systems, emerging famines may go undetected, making starvation an increasingly effective weapon of war.

The Weaponization of Starvation in Conflict and A Shifting U.S. Foreign Policy

Historically, mass starvation has been used as a political and military tool. From South Sudan’s scorched-earth tactics to Syria’s sieges, famine has been deliberately engineered to weaken opposition. With famine monitoring systems now deteriorating, future conflicts may see starvation used with greater impunity.

U.S. aid policy now prioritises domestic interests over global humanitarian leadership. The Trump administration has indicated it will no longer fund aid programs without direct benefits to the U.S. Without intervention, the dismantling of famine response systems could lead to a return of large-scale, unmonitored famines, with devastating humanitarian consequences.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇪🇺 India, EU to finalise free trade agreement: India and the European Union have committed to finalizing their long-awaited FTA by the end of this year while expanding cooperation in trade, technology, connectivity, and defence. After meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized their shared commitment to democratic values and the importance of strengthening the India-EU partnership. Von der Leyen called the proposed FTA the largest of its kind globally and stressed the need for pragmatism in light of shifting global trade dynamics. With Brussels eager to secure the deal amid potential U.S. tariffs, negotiations continue on key issues such as market access, with the next round of talks scheduled for March. The EU remains India’s top trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $130 billion in 2023-24, nearly doubling over the past decade.

2️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 A Ukraine truce would test Putin’s intentions, says French foreign minister: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot has proposed that a one-month truce in Ukraine could reveal whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is serious about peace negotiations. Speaking on RTL Radio, Barrot echoed President Emmanuel Macron’s earlier call for a temporary halt to air, sea, and infrastructure attacks. He argued that such a pause would test Putin’s willingness to engage in meaningful talks for a lasting settlement. Reuters reports that Barrot also suggested that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump might be open to resuming direct discussions following last week’s tense Oval Office exchange.