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📰 Venezuela-Guyana tensions escalate

📰 Venezuela-Guyana tensions escalate

and IMF to bailout Argentina

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 10, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

Today, South Korea announces June presidential elections, the IMF finalises a $20bn bailout for Argentina, and Iraqi Shia militias reject reports of disarmament amid escalating tensions. Meanwhile, the U.S. pauses its global tariff push and prepares a historic $1 trillion defence budget.

Our lead story explores the deepening Venezuela-Guyana border dispute, now under review at the International Court of Justice.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇩🇪 German chancellor Merz forms coalition: Germany’s conservative CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, and the centre-left SPD finalised a coalition agreement just 45 days after snap elections, clearing the path for Merz to become chancellor in May. The swift deal comes amid mounting pressure to address Trump’s tariff-driven trade war and Russian aggression, with Merz pledging military investment and economic reforms to safeguard Germany’s role in Europe. The coalition agreed to corporate tax cuts, reduced energy levies, and stricter border controls to curb irregular migration, though it stopped short of the hard-right demands pushed by Merz’s rivals. While the accord strengthens Germany’s global stance, Merz faces domestic backlash from within his party and a surging far-right opposition, even as he asserts Germany is “back on track” and ready to lead.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Trump issues pause on tariffs, China escalates counter tariffs on U.S. goods from 34% to 84%: President Trump unexpectedly paused new tariffs on all countries except China—who increased levies to 84%, responding to Trump's duties that included 104% on some Chinese goods—announcing a 90-day halt via social media just days after initiating sweeping trade measures. The reversal followed steep market losses and growing backlash from global partners, including retaliatory tariffs from China and the EU. While Trump maintained a tough stance on China—raising tariffs to 125%—he softened his approach toward others, calling for calm and hinting at future negotiations. His remarks contradicted earlier White House statements, revealing limits to how much political and economic turmoil the administration is prepared to endure.

3️⃣ 🇸🇸 African Union races to prevent renewed civil war in South Sudan: AU mediators arrived in Juba on Wednesday for emergency talks amid fears that South Sudan could slide back into civil war. The visit follows the house arrest of First Vice President Riek Machar, who was detained last week after clashes between government troops and the White Army militia in Upper Nile state. President Salva Kiir’s government accuses Machar of stoking rebellion, though his SPLM-IO party denies links to the militia. The AU delegation, joined by East African envoy Raila Odinga, was barred from meeting Machar—fueling concerns that Kiir is consolidating power and putting the fragile 2018 peace agreement at risk.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Senate confirms Huckabee as ambassador to Israel, CIA chief Ratcliffe holds talks with Netanyahu in Jerusalem: The U.S. Senate has confirmed Mike Huckabee, a far-right evangelical and staunch advocate of Israeli settlement expansion, as the next ambassador to Israel. Huckabee’s appointment, supported by nearly all Republicans and only one Democrat, comes amid intensified Israeli military operations and land seizures in Gaza, fully backed by President Trump. In Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with CIA Director John Ratcliffe following Netanyahu’s recent Washington visit. Meanwhile, scores of civilians were killed after Israeli airstrikes targeted Shujaiya, where over 30 were killed on the same day, including eight children.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 Hegseth, Trump tout $1 trillion U.S. defence budget: During a Monday evening meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. is preparing to submit its first-ever $1 trillion defense budget. Emphasising national security needs, Trump described the forthcoming budget as unprecedented, calling it “the biggest one we’ve ever done for the military.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth later confirmed the figure refers to the fiscal year 2026 request, though no official release date has been provided. Analysts suggest the proposal could represent a $50 billion increase over previous projections, pushing the National Defense total to around $1 trillion.

Major Story

🇻🇪 🇬🇾 VENEZUELA AND GUYANA’S BORDER STANDOFF: OIL, TERRITORY, AND RISING TENSIONS

Tensions between Venezuela and Guyana have sharply escalated after Venezuela's navy confronted ExxonMobil vessels operating near the disputed Stabroek block. Caracas claims the offshore zone lies within its exclusive economic area, prompting Guyana to protest and mobilise its air and maritime forces. The dispute centres on the mineral-rich Essequibo region, which Venezuela has long claimed despite a 1899 international ruling in Guyana’s favour. In response to Venezuela’s latest political push—including plans to elect officials for a new “Guayana Esequiba” state—Guyana has appealed to the International Court of Justice for urgent intervention.

Diplomatic Strains and Regional Alarm

Venezuela’s renewed assertiveness has drawn strong international criticism, including from the U.S., UK, Caricom, and France. President Maduro’s attempt to frame Essequibo as a patriotic cause has raised fears of a miscalculation that could spiral into conflict, especially with reports of military build-ups and bridge construction near contested territory. While Maduro insists on bilateral talks, Guyana maintains that the case is now with the ICJ and refuses to negotiate under duress.

Geopolitical Risks and the ICJ Pathway

Essequibo’s newfound oil wealth has raised the stakes significantly. With ExxonMobil and China’s CNOOC invested in the region, the dispute has international economic implications. While the ICJ is expected to rule by 2026, Guyana and its allies are bracing for potential disruptions. Maduro’s rhetoric may be aimed more at boosting domestic support amid sanctions and a battered economy than at launching actual conflict. Still, risks of escalation remain high, especially in contested border areas rife with armed groups and illicit activity.

Avoiding Conflict

With U.S. naval support already visible off Guyana’s coast, the international community—particularly Brazil, Caricom, and the UN—must reinforce diplomatic channels, say regional analysts. Pressuring Venezuela to respect the ICJ process while warning against provocations is essential. The next two years, particularly around Guyana’s 2025 elections, may prove decisive in determining whether this long-frozen conflict erupts into war or finds a peaceful resolution.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iraqi Shia militias deny disarmament reports amid rising tensions: Kata’ib Hizbollah has firmly denied reports that it and other major Iran-backed Shi’i factions in Iraq are considering disarmament. The rebuttal came in response to an April 7 Reuters article claiming these groups were in advanced talks with Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani, reportedly with Iran’s approval, to avoid escalation with the United States. Kata’ib Hizbollah dismissed the report as false and defamatory, asserting only statements from its spokesperson, Jaafar Al-Husseini, should be regarded as official. The group also warned of legal action against misleading coverage, as public debate intensifies over what the Iraqi government and Shiite factions may be negotiating behind closed doors.

2️⃣ 🇦🇷 IMF reaches $20bn bailout deal for Argentina: The International Monetary Fund announced it had reached a staff-level agreement with Argentina for a $20 billion bailout, offering crucial support to President Javier Milei as he pursues sweeping economic reforms. The deal, still pending approval from the IMF’s executive board, comes as Milei’s market-driven austerity programme begins to stabilise the economy and curb inflation. Argentina’s dwindling foreign reserves had fuelled fears of another default, but the agreement could help avert a crisis and sustain policy momentum. As the country with the most IMF bailouts in history, Argentina now hopes this deal will restore economic credibility.

3️⃣ 🇰🇷 South Korea to hold presidential elections in June: South Korea will hold a snap presidential election on June 3, following the Constitutional Court’s decision to uphold the impeachment of former president Yoon Suk-yeol, who was ousted for attempting to impose martial law. Acting President Han Duck-soo announced the date after consultations with the National Election Commission, emphasising the need for fairness and transparency. With no transition period for the winner, the new president will take office the day after the vote. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung leads in early polls, while the ruling People Power Party remains fractured after Yoon’s dramatic removal.