Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Venezuela shuts border

📰 Venezuela shuts border

and Niger troops ambushed

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 15, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In Latin America, Venezuela has closed its border with Brazil, while in the Sahel, jihadists operating out of Niger and Burkina Faso have killed over 30 soldiers in Benin. In governance–adjacent headlines, Comoros held parliamentary elections, and Nawaf Salam, ICJ President and former UN Security Council president, was appointed as Lebanon’s new prime minister. Today’s spotlight focuses on Russian interference in Georgia and Moldova.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Lancet study indicates Gaza death toll at least 40% higher than official number: A study published in The Lancet estimates that deaths in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict were about 40% higher than the figures reported by the Palestinian health ministry. Conducted by researchers from institutions such as the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Yale University, the analysis applied a statistical method known as capture-recapture analysis. The research estimates 64,260 fatalities due to traumatic injuries from October 2023 to June 2024, with 59.1% identified as women, children, and elderly individuals. The study does not provide specific figures for Palestinian combatants among the dead but highlights the broader human toll of the conflict.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇵🇭 🇨🇳 U.S., Japan, Philippines further trilateral security cooperation: Japan, the Philippines, and the United States committed to strengthening their trilateral cooperation amid growing tensions in Asia’s waters, following a virtual meeting among their leaders. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., and outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden emphasized plans to enhance economic, maritime, and technological collaboration. The discussion built on an earlier summit in Washington aimed at upholding international law and regional stability. Biden expressed optimism that his successor, President-elect Donald Trump, would continue fostering the partnership, emphasizing the need to institutionalize long-term cooperation. The leaders also denounced efforts to alter the status quo by force in the East and South China Seas, with China’s activities in the region drawing particular concern from the White House and Japan’s foreign ministry.

3️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇧🇷 Venezuela shuts its shared border with Brazil: Brazil’s government announced on Friday that Venezuela has temporarily closed their shared border, following the inauguration of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro for a new term after a prolonged election dispute. The closure, which will last until Monday, was confirmed by Brazil’s foreign ministry, although Venezuela’s information ministry did not respond to requests for comment. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who recognized Maduro’s victory in the contested July election, did not address Maduro directly on Friday but sent Ambassador Glivania Maria de Oliveira to the inauguration. Brazil’s foreign ministry also assured that consular officials in Venezuela would assist Brazilian citizens in case of emergency during the border closure.

4️⃣ 🇳🇪 🇧🇫 🇧🇯 Niger, Burkina Faso–based jihadists kill over 30 troops in Benin: Benin’s military suffered significant losses in an attack near its northern border with Niger and Burkina Faso, authorities reported. Colonel Faizou Gomina, the national guard’s chief of staff, confirmed the assault targeted one of the country’s most fortified military positions. While the perpetrators remain unidentified, Benin has increasingly faced attacks from jihadist groups in the region. The opposition party reported approximately 30 soldiers killed, while a security source put the toll at 28. The military has claimed 40 assailants have been neutralised, and Col Gomina urged military leaders to enhance strategies to address rising security threats. Since 2022, Benin has deployed nearly 3,000 troops to bolster northern defenses.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Over 100’000 displaced in DR Congo this year already: The UN humanitarian coordinator for Congo expressed alarm on Friday about the rising displacement in North Kivu due to escalated clashes between the army and rebels. Since the start of 2025, over 100,000 people have fled Masisi territory as the M23 rebels and the Congolese army continue fighting. Bruno Lemarquis called for adherence to international humanitarian law, highlighting that more than 2.8 million people are already displaced in the province. The violence has affected civilians in displacement sites and humanitarian workers, with 9 killed and over 400 incidents targeting aid operations in 2024. Rwanda's alleged support for the M23 rebels remains a point of contention with Congo, although Rwanda denies the claims.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇬🇪 🇲🇩 RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE IN GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA: LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS

The elections in Georgia and Moldova at the close of 2024 illustrated Russia’s ongoing efforts to influence political outcomes in former Soviet states, with mixed results that highlight both its strengths and limitations.

Georgia’s Election and Russian Influence

In Georgia, the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party won a parliamentary majority despite widespread protests and high voter turnout. Russian media, notably RT, celebrated the result as a victory for Georgia’s alignment with Russia. The election was marred by irregularities such as voter intimidation and vote-buying, leading to accusations of foreign interference. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili pointed to the Kremlin’s involvement, citing Russian-style propaganda. Russia’s interference strategy included framing Georgia as a target for a “colour revolution,” shifting the focus from its own actions. Russian allies, including Hungary’s Viktor Orban, further muddied the waters by praising the election’s legitimacy.

Moldova: A Less Successful Attempt

In Moldova, Russia’s interference efforts were less successful. Despite cyber-attacks, disinformation, and vote manipulation, Maia Sandu, a pro-EU candidate, won re-election. Russia’s tactics mirrored those in Georgia, using fear of war and Russian-backed voter mobilization, but Moldova’s electorate rejected these efforts. The simultaneous EU accession referendum also passed, signaling Moldovans’ commitment to closer ties with the West.

Conclusion

While Russia succeeded in Georgia, Moldova’s resilience shows that such interference is not always effective. However, the Kremlin’s actions highlight the ongoing risks for European democracies, with potential for further meddling in the future.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇰🇲 Comoros holds elections: Comoros held parliamentary elections on Sunday amid opposition calls for a boycott, with critics accusing President Azali Assoumani and his ruling party of authoritarian tendencies and raising doubts about the vote's fairness. The election will determine the 33 seats in parliament, with results expected next week, according to the electoral commission.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 Nawaf Salam, former ICJ chief justice, elected as Lebanon’s new prime minister: The appointment of Nawaf Salam, president of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), as Lebanon's prime minister has sparked board optimism in Lebanon, which is still reeling from the aftermath of Israeli invasion and economic crisis. His selection by parliament follows Joseph Aoun’s recent election as president, ending a leadership vacuum since 2022. Salam is expected to lead at least until the next parliamentary elections in 2026, marking a significant win for the pro-reform movement. Seen as a voice for change and untainted by domestic politics, Salam is viewed as embodying the aspirations of the October 17 protest movement, which emerged in 2019 to demand sweeping reforms. Journalist Dalal Mawad described him as a leader with "a clear political vision and beliefs," resonating with calls for a transformative approach to governance.