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📰 Vietnam walks diplomatic tightrope

📰 Vietnam walks diplomatic tightrope

and Security Council extends Haiti mandate

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 15, 2025

Hello,

Vietnam balances ties between Washington and Beijing, while the UN extends its mission in Haiti. In Africa, Islamic State-linked ADF militants kill 66 civilians in eastern Congo, and Cameroon’s President Biya eyes a seventh term amid health concerns and mounting political fatigue. Meanwhile, Iran’s threats to block the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained by legal norms and strategic precedent.

Our lead story explores the expanding digital frontlines of the Ukraine–Russia war and the rise of tech-savvy foreign fighters.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 China offers mediation in Thailand–Cambodia border dispute: China has expressed readiness to mediate between Thailand and Cambodia amid rising border tensions. The offer came from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during a meeting with his Thai counterpart, Maris Sangiampongsa, on the sidelines of the ASEAN foreign ministers’ summit in Kuala Lumpur. Wang stated that China, a longstanding partner to both nations, is prepared to adopt a neutral and constructive role in encouraging peaceful coexistence. He urged both countries to resolve their dispute through dialogue and mutual understanding. Tensions have escalated since a deadly exchange of gunfire along the frontier on May 28, which left a Cambodian soldier dead. In the aftermath, both countries shut their shared border, raising regional concern. Beijing’s involvement signals its growing diplomatic engagement in Southeast Asian affairs amid simmering local conflicts.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Trump threatens Moscow with further economic pressure, NATO arms Ukraine: President Donald Trump has warned of steep tariffs on Russia—and potentially on nations doing business with it—if a peace deal on Ukraine isn’t reached within 50 days. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed sanctions remain on the table. Simultaneously, Trump unveiled a major shift in U.S. policy, announcing that NATO allies will purchase U.S.-made weapons and send them to Ukraine, a $10 billion deal that includes Patriot missile systems. Trump, frustrated with Putin’s continued attacks, said diplomacy has failed and only action matters now. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Trump for bolstering Ukraine’s defences. The move underscores Trump’s pivot toward active involvement in ending the war, even as he signals potential economic retaliation against Moscow and its trade partners like China and India.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇭🇹 UN Security Council extends mandate of UN mission in Haiti: The UN Security Council has unanimously extended the mandate of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) until 2026, reaffirming support for a Haitian-led solution to escalating violence and political paralysis. Over 1.3 million Haitians are displaced and 4,000 have been killed this year as gangs tighten control of Port-au-Prince. The resolution comes amid rising food insecurity and widespread gender-based violence. The Council also pledged to consider Secretary-General Guterres’ proposals on future UN roles and urged support for the Multinational Security Support mission. Haiti’s ambassador welcomed the extension, stressing its importance for dialogue, reform, and elections. New BINUH head Carlos G. Ruiz Massieu, a seasoned peace negotiator, was also confirmed, as the country approaches a critical 2026 transition deadline.

4️⃣ 🇻🇳 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Vietnam agrees to new U.S. tariffs as Hanoi walks tightrope between Washington and Beijing: Vietnam has struck a tariff deal with President Donald Trump, agreeing to a 20% duty on exports to the US and a steeper 40% rate on goods deemed trans-shipped from China. This follows Trump’s now-suspended 46% tariff threats. Eager to preserve access to U.S. markets, Hanoi cracked down on counterfeit goods, pledged major purchases of U.S. products — including potential F-16 jets — and promised to cut tariffs on American imports. With a $123 billion trade surplus at stake and its leadership facing internal pressure ahead of the next Communist Party Congress, Vietnam acted swiftly. But as it deepens economic ties with both China and the U.S., it risks being caught in their rivalry. While the U.S. deal may bolster bilateral ties, Vietnam remains cautious not to alienate Beijing or appear strategically aligned with Washington.

5️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Israeli military strikes Syria as Suwayda descends into violent clashes: On 14 July, Israeli aircraft struck Syrian tanks in Suwayda amid fierce fighting between Druze armed factions and Damascus-linked militias. The Israeli military claimed Syrian armour violated agreed boundaries in the area. Violence erupted after Bedouin fighters assaulted a Druze civilian, prompting retaliatory attacks. Although Damascus claimed its troop deployment was to restore order, Druze leaders accused state forces of siding with extremist militias and targeting civilians. At least 89 people have been killed, including children, with nearly 200 wounded. Druze spiritual leader Hikmat al-Hijri appealed for international protection, condemning the state’s use of drones and heavy weapons. Israel, claiming to support the Druze minority, has increasingly targeted regime-affiliated forces in the south, bolstering its presence in the region.

Major Story

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 DIGITAL CONFLICT AND THE NEW FOREIGN FIGHTER

Modern warfare is being transformed by digital technologies that dissolve the boundaries between soldier and civilian, frontline and homefront. As conflict spreads across screens and servers, civilians now engage through crowdfunding, drone logistics, and open-source intelligence. What some scholars call "participative warfare" is most visible in Ukraine, where thousands of foreign volunteers—some with no prior military background—have joined a war increasingly fought with keyboards as well as Kalashnikovs.

New Profiles on the Battlefield

Fieldwork in Kyiv has revealed how modern warfighters range from military veterans to elite tech professionals. Ramon, a young Spanish cybersecurity expert, arrived in Ukraine drawn by anti-fascist ideals, disillusionment with his career, and the appeal of real-world impact. Armed only with technical skills and a conviction that "this is a fight for the European project," he sought entry into Ukraine’s International Legion, planning to build drones and electronic warfare systems. His guide was Trevor, a U.S. veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan whose trauma and sense of purposelessness led him back to conflict. Their relationship—initially forged online—reflected how digital platforms now serve as informal pipelines into foreign warzones.

Tech-Powered, Phone-Paranoid

Ironically, the same technologies that make modern participation possible also fuel deep paranoia. Fighters shun WhatsApp and Telegram in favour of encrypted alternatives like Signal, wary of surveillance. Past Russian strikes have targeted clusters of foreign SIM cards, prompting a retreat into analog havens.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇺🇬 Islamic State-linked ADF kills 66 civilians in in eastern Congo: Suspected fighters from the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an Islamic State-affiliated militant group, killed at least 66 civilians in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, according to UN and local officials. The attacks occurred between July 11 and 12 in the Walese Vonkutu area of Ituri province, near the Ugandan border. Victims, including women, were reportedly killed with machetes. Civil society groups said the true toll may rise, and an unknown number of hostages were taken. The massacre follows intensified joint operations by Congolese and Ugandan forces against the ADF. Originating in Uganda in the 1990s, the group pledged allegiance to ISIS in 2019 and remains active across the region. The violence underscores the persistent threat the ADF poses even as Congo edges closer to a peace deal with the Rwandan-backed M23.

2️⃣ 🇨🇲 Biya seeks seventh term amid health rumours and political fatigue: Cameroon’s 92-year-old President Paul Biya, in power since 1982, has announced he will stand for re-election on October 12, potentially extending his rule into a fifth decade. His candidacy had long been expected despite mounting concerns over his health—intensified by a 42-day public absence last year—and his increasingly rare public appearances. Biya abolished term limits in 2008 and won the 2018 vote with over 70%, though opposition groups decried the results as fraudulent. Critics argue his extended rule has hindered democratic development and economic reform. Several challengers, including Maurice Kamto and Cabral Libii, are vying for the presidency amid continued unrest in Anglophone regions and persistent Boko Haram activity in the north. A contested and unstable succession appears increasingly likely.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 Iran’s threat to block Strait of Hormuz constrained by law and precedent: Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow shipping lane through which 20% of global oil flows—raised alarm, but its feasibility is limited by maritime law and precedent. While Iran borders the strait and claims 12 nautical miles of territorial waters, it is not a signatory to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), nor is the U.S.. This excludes both from UNCLOS protections such as “transit passage,” which guarantees uninterrupted navigation through global straits. Historically, however, Iran has never acted on its threats, partly due to the strong US naval presence and the economic costs of escalation. The legal principle of mare liberum—freedom of navigation—still underpins global trade, sustaining fragile maritime stability in this volatile region despite rising geopolitical friction.