Hello and welcome back.

Today, low turnout clouds Mexico’s judicial elections, fuelling concerns of partisan capture, while Merz navigates Trump as Germany repositions its foreign policy. In Africa, Sudan’s former prime minister warns that the army’s recapture of Khartoum will not end the civil war.

Today’s lead story examines Washington’s Sahel recalibration.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇵🇱 Russia strikes western Ukraine, Poland scrambles jets as frontlines widen: Poland scrambled fighter jets early Monday after Russian airstrikes hit western Ukraine near its border, with the Polish military citing security measures for bordering regions. Ukraine faced nationwide air raid alerts as Russian forces targeted Kyiv and expanded their offensive eastward. Moscow claimed advances into Dnipropetrovsk, threatening a new front in the war’s third year, while independent monitors confirmed Russian troops nearing Sumy, just 29km from the city. Russia also claimed to have retaken the village of Loknia, lost during Ukraine’s 2022 counteroffensive. Meanwhile, tensions rose over prisoner exchanges and the repatriation of war dead, with Russia accusing Ukraine of stalling the return of 12,000 soldiers’ bodies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected the allegations, accusing Moscow of politicising humanitarian processes while reaffirming Ukraine’s commitment to facilitating prisoner swaps.

2️⃣ 🇪🇹 Ethiopia’s political fault lines widen as TPLF de-registered and insurgencies persist: Relations between Ethiopia’s federal government and the TPLF further deteriorated after the National Election Board revoked the TPLF’s legal status, citing breaches of electoral law. The decision, following months of political crisis and the TPLF’s ousting of interim leader Getachew Reda, has deepened mistrust. Tensions escalated on 26 May with the provisional registration of Reda’s new party, Tigray Democratic Solidarity. These developments risk undermining the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, with disputed territories unresolved and reports of TPLF-Eritrea collaboration resurfacing. Protests erupted in Southern Tigray over local leadership reforms, and new anti-TPLF armed groups, allegedly backed by federal forces, have appeared. Meanwhile, insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia endure. Four Fano factions unified under the Amhara Fano National Force, and clashes between the Oromo Liberation Army and federal troops intensified. Separately, Ethiopia and South Sudan agreed to bolster joint border security following armed incursions into Gambela.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇾🇪 Beijing's pragmatic engagement with Yemen's Ansarullah: Recent reports allege a Chinese firm linked to the People’s Liberation Army provided satellite data to Yemen’s Ansarullah movement, aiding attacks on U.S. ships. Yet, analysts caution against overstating Beijing’s role, noting China’s involvement in Yemen remains pragmatic and focused on securing trade routes through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Claims that China supplies advanced weapons components to the Houthis are largely unverified and likely involve commercially available items rather than direct state support. China’s stronger ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE constrain deeper engagement with the Houthis, aligning with its broader regional strategy. While concerns about China helping the Houthis bypass U.S. sanctions persist, Russia’s links to the group appear more substantial. Still, Houthi integration into China’s economic orbit hints at deeper shifts in global trade dynamics.

4️⃣ 🇸🇩 SAF’s recapture of Khartoum will not end the civil war, says former Sudan prime minister: Sudan’s former prime minister Abdalla Hamdok has rejected the military’s efforts to form a new government, calling it “fake” and warning that territorial gains in Khartoum will not end the country’s civil war. In an interview during the Mo Ibrahim Foundation’s conference in Morocco, Hamdok stressed that no military solution can resolve Sudan’s crisis, which has displaced millions and killed tens of thousands. Hamdok, who resigned in 2022 after leading a fragile democratic transition, now heads a civilian coalition in exile. He criticised recent moves by the army to install a new prime minister, Kamil al-Taib Idris, labelling reconstruction efforts “ridiculous” while fighting continues. True peace, Hamdok argued, requires tackling Sudan’s structural inequalities and restoring civilian rule. He also called for an end to all foreign arms supplies fueling the conflict, without singling out any particular country.

5️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇺🇸 Merz navigates Trump encounter as Germany reorients abroad: Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s first Oval Office meeting with President Donald Trump was more triumph than trap. Where others faltered, Merz remained composed, presenting a restrained gift — Trump’s grandfather’s birth certificate — and sidestepping confrontation. In his first month, Merz has moved quickly: mending relations with France, reengaging Britain, visiting Poland and the Nordics, and aligning with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. Yet on major issues — German arms for Ukraine or persuading Trump to press Russia — progress has proved elusive. At home, Merz is spearheading a bold security shift, proposing defence spending rise to 5% of GDP and establishing a National Security Council. Still, Berlin’s ambiguity on Gaza highlights persistent contradictions. As Merz prepares for the NATO summit in The Hague, his early diplomatic moves suggest a leader cautiously but steadily finding his footing.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇳🇪 🇧🇫 WASHINGTON’S SAHEL RECALIBRATION: PRAGMATISM OR PERIL?

Following years of strained relations with Sahelian military regimes, the U.S. under President Donald Trump appears to be rethinking its approach. Recent engagements — including Nigerien Prime Minister Lamine Zeine’s April visit to Washington and the delayed but symbolic credentialing of U.S. Ambassador Kathleen FitzGibbon in Niamey — signal a thaw. U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Will Stevens’ May tour of Burkina Faso and Niger further underscored a desire to “stimulate a new dynamic of cooperation.”

Why the U-Turn?

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — now united under the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES) — have pivoted away from Western influence, expelling French forces, demanding U.S. troop withdrawals, and forming tighter ties with Russia. Their withdrawal from ECOWAS in 2024 marked a decisive break with regional norms championed by previous U.S. administrations. For Washington, disengagement risks ceding ground in a region where jihadist violence has reached alarming levels and where rare mineral wealth — notably uranium and lithium — could have strategic importance.

Trump’s Transactional Opportunity

Sahelian leaders, weary of the aid-centric and governance-focused models of the past, seem more receptive to Trump’s transactional diplomacy. Their governments prefer investment and military support over conditional aid or pressure for rapid democratization. From Niamey to Ouagadougou, officials suggest that a pragmatic U.S. approach, less concerned with democratic norms and more attuned to security and economic interests, could be mutually beneficial.

Risks of a Militarised Focus

Yet the recalibration carries risks. Strengthening ties without caution could bolster regimes that have grown increasingly authoritarian and reliant on military force to suppress dissent. While a pragmatic approach may stabilise diplomatic relations, it risks entrenching militarised governance models already responsible for widespread abuses.

As Washington re-engages, it faces a delicate balancing act: pursuing strategic interests without reinforcing a security-only mindset that has proven inadequate at addressing the Sahel’s deep-rooted political and social fractures. Whether this rapprochement will lead to greater regional stability or entrench authoritarianism remains an open and pressing question.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇽 Low turnout mars Mexico’s judicial elections, stoking fears of partisan capture: Mexico’s bid to elect thousands of judges — including Supreme Court justices — was hailed by President Claudia Sheinbaum as a democratic milestone. Yet with only 13 percent turnout, skepticism dominates. Early results suggest candidates closely aligned with Sheinbaum’s MORENA party will dominate the judiciary, fueling concerns of partisan control. While Sheinbaum defended the new judges, critics argue the election risks worsening corruption and impunity. Despite her high approval ratings, Sheinbaum struggled to rally voters beyond her base, and opposition parties largely boycotted the polls. The complex ballot and government-selected candidate lists further clouded the process. Sheinbaum has admitted reforms are needed before the next judicial elections in 2027, but her close association with the current vote leaves her vulnerable if public trust in the judiciary erodes further.

2️⃣ 🇹🇳 🇵🇸 Maghrebi convoy mobilises for Gaza as regional solidarity surges: A major land convoy from Tunisia is set to depart Monday, aiming to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza and demand an end to what organisers call Israel’s “war of extermination.” The Maghreb Resilience Convoy, coordinated by the Joint Action Coordination for Palestine, will set off from Tunis, Sousse, Sfax, and Gabes, travelling through Libya and Egypt towards Rafah. Trade unionists, lawyers, doctors, and journalists from Tunisia, Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, and Libya — over 7,000 in total — have joined. Key Tunisian organisations, including the General Labour Union and National Bar Association, are backing the initiative. The effort coincides with the Freedom Flotilla ship Madleen nearing Gaza, despite Israeli warnings. These actions mark a renewed surge of Maghreb and international solidarity as humanitarian conditions in Gaza deteriorate under Israel’s prolonged blockade and military offensive.

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