Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

Jennifer Geerlings-Simons becomes Suriname’s first female president, elected amid a mounting debt crisis and high oil expectations. Iran orders the mass expulsion of Afghan migrants, while Israeli Foreign Minister Katz threatens further action as Houthi forces defy the ceasefire.

But today’s lead story returns to the fragile peace deal between Rwanda and the DRC, where violence continues and implementation hangs by a thread.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russian forces capture record Ukrainian territory in June offensive: Russia expanded its summer offensive in June, seizing 556 square kilometres of Ukrainian land—the largest monthly gain in 2025 so far, surpassing May’s 449 sq km. Fierce clashes raged in Donetsk, where Russian troops captured several villages and pressed toward the key cities of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Kyiv reported Moscow had massed 110,000 troops around Pokrovsk. Russia also claimed to have seized the last parts of Luhansk, while pushing into Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. Airstrikes are escalating on both sides. Meanwhile, the Trump administration this week announced that it had frozen part of the military aid committed to Kyiv under the Biden administration, including critical air defence batteries and precision-guided munitions.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇧🇷 India navigates BRICS summit and Quad ties amid global fragmentation: India is pursuing a delicate diplomatic balancing act as External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar joined Quad leaders in Washington before Prime Minister Modi headed to the BRICS summit in Brazil. With China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin absent, India has a greater chance to shape the BRICS agenda, though it remains cautious of China’s influence and expansionist ambitions. While New Delhi distances itself from full-throated anti-Western narratives, it champions economic multipolarity and seeks Global South leadership. At the same time, tensions with Washington—over Kashmir mediation, Trump’s ceasefire claims, and potential tariffs—underscore India’s emphasis on strategic autonomy. Even as it deepens ties with the U.S. through the Quad, India remains wary of any shift toward formal military alignment. A volatile world order demands India engage all sides without full commitment to any.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 Trump warns 100 countries tariffs will return to April levels by August 1: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that tariffs will revert to their steep April 2 rates on August 1 for any country that fails to finalise a new trade deal with Washington. The move, announced just ahead of the original July 9 deadline, extends the suspension period but reasserts pressure on global partners. Speaking on CNN, Bessent confirmed that letters would go out to over 100 countries, warning them of looming tariffs unless negotiations speed up. While only the UK, Vietnam, and China have reached agreements so far, talks with India and the EU are reportedly progressing. Officials suggested some flexibility may exist for key partners, but Bessent stressed the timeline is firm. Trump said tariffs could range from 10% to 70%, depending on the country.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 🇸🇦 Israel-Iran war has pushed Saudi Arabia from normalisation, reports Haaretz: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s belief that victory over Iran would unlock regional normalisation—especially with Saudi Arabia—is faltering, according to Israeli newspaper Haaretz. Despite Netanyahu’s claims that defeating Tehran would remove the last obstacle to Saudi-Israeli diplomatic ties, Riyadh remains unconvinced. The Kingdom wants de-escalation and a return to regional stability, not perpetual conflict. Netanyahu’s aggressive posture—continued assaults in Gaza, land seizure in Syria, airstrikes on Yemen and Lebanon, and provocative remarks—has alienated Gulf partners. Saudi leaders were particularly angered by Netanyahu’s suggestion that Palestinians could be resettled in their territory and by his assumption that the Saudis “will normalise.” In contrast, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reaffirmed détente with Iran and refused U.S. and Israeli use of Saudi airspace for attacks.

5️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇦🇫 Russia becomes first country to formally recognise Taliban government in Kabul: On 3 July 2025, Russia officially recognised the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate government, marking a major shift in global diplomacy. While surprising to some, the move builds on years of deepening ties. Since the Taliban’s 2021 return to power, at least 17 countries have maintained embassies in Kabul, with many—such as China, Türkiye, and the UAE—upgrading diplomatic relations. Moscow has gone further: removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organisations, signing energy deals, and proposing military support to counter Islamic State–Khorasan Province (IS-KP). As Moscow prepares to host Taliban officials at its regional forum, the decision may push others—like China and Uzbekistan—to follow suit. With a permanent UN Security Council member now recognising the Taliban, efforts to use non-recognition to influence Taliban governance face growing uncertainty.

Major Story

🇨🇩 🇷🇼 WHAT NEXT FOR EASTERN DR CONGO?

On 27 June, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda signed a peace agreement at the White House, mediated by the U.S. and Qatar. The deal, hailed by President Donald Trump as a “glorious triumph,” commits both parties to ending hostilities, respecting territorial sovereignty, and halting support for armed groups. However, violence persists on the ground: M23 rebels—backed by Rwanda—continue their advance, recently pushing toward Uvira. While the agreement outlines plans for mineral trade and U.S. investment, its implementation remains precarious.

Roots of the Conflict

The current war follows decades of instability. The M23, a Tutsi-led rebel group, re-emerged in 2021 after years of dormancy, fuelled by regional rivalries and resource competition. Kigali, threatened by Kinshasa’s growing military ties with Uganda and Burundi, revived the M23 to counter its rivals and retain influence over Congo’s mineral-rich east.

Diplomacy and Hurdles to Implementation

After Angola’s 2022 mediation failed, Qatar launched a new diplomatic initiative in early 2025, bringing Presidents Kagame and Tshisekedi to the table. The Doha meetings paved the way for the Washington agreement. U.S. interest—driven by critical mineral access and a desire for foreign policy “wins”—has given the process momentum. However, critics in the DRC worry that peace terms may prioritise external commercial interests over Congolese sovereignty.

Despite diplomatic breakthroughs, implementation faces stiff resistance. Rwanda insists on neutralising the FDLR—an ethnic Hutu paramilitary based in DRC—before withdrawing troops, a condition Kinshasa sees as a delay tactic. Meanwhile, the M23 refuses to recognise the deal and continues fighting, despite parallel talks in Doha. Progress depends on sustained pressure from the U.S. and Qatar, and greater African Union engagement, led by mediator President Faure Gnassingbé of Togo.

What’s Next?

For peace to hold, Kinshasa must offer political reassurances to Tutsis and clamp down on FDLR ties, while Kigali must end military backing for M23. Doha’s talks with the rebels are key. A compromise could see senior M23 leaders exiled and fighters reintegrated individually into Congo’s army. Without such trade-offs and regional unity, this deal risks joining the long list of failed peace efforts in the Great Lakes.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇾🇪 Katz warns of further Israeli action as Houthis defy ceasefire: Despite a ceasefire ending the recent 12-day Iran-Israel war, Yemen’s Ansarullah movement (Houthis) have vowed to continue striking Israel until the war on Gaza ends. The group’s missile attack on Jaffa early in ‘Operation Rising Lion’ signalled its growing assertiveness within the Iran-aligned ‘Axis of Resistance.’ Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has warned of further military retaliation against Yemen. While the truce may temporarily ease pressure on Iran’s supply lines to the Houthis, it has not deterred their escalation. A May pact between the US and Houthis to halt Red Sea attacks remains fragile. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are alarmed by renewed tensions but seek to avoid entanglement, prioritising diplomacy to avoid regional retaliation or escalation.

2️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇦🇫 🇺🇳 Iran orders mass expulsion of Afghan migrants: Iran has ordered all undocumented Afghan migrants to leave by the end of the week, putting over 4 million people at risk of deportation in what could become the region’s largest forced return in living memory. Since Iran’s 23 June ceasefire with Israel, expulsions have surged, with up to 30,000 people returning daily, citing economic strain and security threats. The International Organization for Migration reported over 256,000 returns in June alone. Afghanistan, already reeling from economic collapse and ongoing displacement, is struggling to absorb the influx. Pakistan is also deporting Afghans, compounding the crisis. With UN refugee agencies facing acute funding shortages, experts warn that accelerating deportations will further destabilise Afghanistan and worsen its humanitarian catastrophe. Crisis Group’s Ibraheem Bahiss says the scale of returns is simply unsustainable.

3️⃣ 🇸🇷 Geerlings-Simons elected Suriname’s first female president amid debt crisis and oil hopes: Suriname’s National Assembly has elected Jennifer Geerlings-Simons as the country’s first female president, following a post-election coalition that ousted incumbent Chandrikapersad Santokhi. Geerlings-Simons, a 71-year-old physician and leader of the National Democratic Party, ran unopposed and will be sworn in on 16 July. Her term begins as Suriname grapples with a fragile economy, $400 million in annual debt repayments, and mounting public frustration over austerity. Despite macroeconomic gains under Santokhi, his term was marred by corruption scandals and IMF-imposed subsidy cuts. Geerlings-Simons pledged to stabilise the economy and raise state revenues through improved tax collection, especially in gold mining. The country is banking on major offshore oil production, expected by 2028, to transform its fortunes.

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Prisoners of Geography

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The World: A Brief Introduction

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