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In Latin America, Chile appears poised to shift right as presidential contenders take shape, while an attempted assassination in Bogotá heightens Colombia’s political unease. In the U.S., the White House intensifies its crackdown on protests with a Marine deployment to Los Angeles, as Israel throws its support behind President Trump’s bid to dismantle UN peacekeeping operations in Lebanon.

Today’s lead story takes us to London, where Trump and Xi meet amid soaring tensions as the trade war nears a breaking point.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 NATO secretary general proposes gargantuan defence spending increase, says Russia poses five-year threat: NATO could face a military challenge from Russia within five years, prompting Secretary General Mark Rutte to call for a dramatic rise in defence spending. In a London speech, Rutte urged alliance members to commit 5% of GDP to security—3.5% in core military expenditure and 1.5% in cyber and related capabilities—citing Russia’s continued militarisation even after any potential ceasefire in Ukraine. Western planners believe Moscow may maintain a 600,000-strong army and spend 6.5% of GDP on defence. The proposal, supported by the UK and encouraged by President Trump, is expected to be formalised at NATO’s Hague summit. Rutte warned that air and missile defence must increase 400%, alongside rearmament and restocking efforts to sustain credible deterrence and confront what he termed a “new era of threat.”

2️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 🇺🇳 Thailand, Cambodia withdraw troops ahead of talks: After a deadly border clash on 28 May that left one Cambodian soldier dead, tensions between Cambodia and Thailand have spiked over contested territory near Preah Vihear. Cambodia’s defence ministry declared that its troops remain stationed in areas it considers sovereign, despite Thai claims and mutual accusations over the incident in the so-called “no man’s land.” Both countries, however, have since signalled willingness to de-escalate, with military leaders agreeing to reposition forces to pre-2024 locations. The rhetoric—partly aimed at domestic nationalist audiences—belies deeper disputes rooted in history, including a 1962 ICJ ruling favouring Cambodia. Prime Minister Hun Manet has pledged to take all four disputed areas to the UN court, even unilaterally, in a bid to settle the matter definitively. Whether diplomacy prevails over politics remains uncertain.

3️⃣ 🇨🇴 Attempted assassination in Bogotá stirs Colombia’s political anxieties: The near-fatal shooting of Colombian presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay has shaken the nation, raising fears of a return to the political violence that scarred its past. The 39-year-old senator was gunned down on 7 June during an unplanned campaign visit to a Bogotá neighbourhood. A 14-year-old assailant fired multiple rounds at close range; Uribe remains in critical condition. The brazen attack recalls Colombia’s blood-soaked era of the late 1980s, when several presidential candidates were killed. Uribe, a vocal opponent of President Gustavo Petro, has long been associated with hardline security politics. As criminal groups grow in power, recruiting youth as expendable hitmen, the attack highlights the growing volatility ahead of the 2026 elections. Whether this marks an isolated act or a calculated disruption remains uncertain — but the echoes of history are chillingly clear.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Forensic Architecture exposes pattern of strikes on Israeli-designated evacuation zones in Gaza: Forensic Architecture, a research agency that uses spatial analysis and visual evidence to investigate human rights violations, has documented a disturbing pattern: Israeli forces have repeatedly struck areas to which civilians in Gaza were explicitly ordered to evacuate. Their analysis shows that the Israeli military has conducted multiple attacks either on the same day or shortly after issuing evacuation orders directing civilians into those zones. On 23 March 2025, for example, residents of Tel al-Sultan in Rafah were told to move northeast. That evening, an Israeli airstrike hit Khan Younis, northeast of Tel al-Sultan, severely damaging the Nasser Medical Complex—the area’s largest hospital. On 7 April, civilians in Deir al-Balah were directed to move southwest; strikes followed that day and the next in the designated area. On 12 April, those in Nuseirat were told to move south—only for a municipal building in Deir al-Balah to be bombed the following day. The trend continues substantively, as recent directives give civilians only general directions, pushing them toward ill-defined areas that often later become targets.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 IAEA chief says information obtained by Iran ‘seems to refer’ to Israeli nuclear research site: The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, acknowledged that documents Iran says it seized may relate to Israel’s Soreq Nuclear Research Center — marking the first external indication that Tehran’s claim of infiltrating Israel’s nuclear program may hold some truth. Iran alleges it obtained thousands of pages through cyber or human espionage, though it has provided no evidence. Grossi confirmed the IAEA inspects Soreq under limited safeguards but not Dimona, where Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal is believed to originate. The revelations come as Iran edges closer to weapons-grade uranium enrichment and looks set to reject a renewed U.S. nuclear proposal. With the October expiry of the West’s snapback sanctions mechanism looming, Western states may soon escalate the matter at the IAEA Board, risking a renewed confrontation at the UN Security Council.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 WASHINGTON, BEIJING SEND DELEGATIONS TO LONDON AS TRADE WAR REACHES BOILING POINT

Months of retaliatory tariffs and fractured diplomacy have brought U.S.-China trade relations to their most volatile state in years. As Washington and Beijing prepare to meet in London on June 9, hopes of de-escalation hang in the balance—but expectations remain tempered.

Since February, President Trump has reignited his hardline trade policy, invoking national security to impose sweeping tariffs—starting at 10% and climbing to an unprecedented 145%—on Chinese imports. The reinstatement of tariffs on small parcels, previously exempt under the de minimis rule, has added to consumer pressure. Beijing responded in kind, levying tariffs as high as 125% and imposing sweeping export controls on rare earth minerals vital to U.S. tech and defence industries.

Trump's so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs in April signalled his intent to decouple from Chinese supply chains. Yet a short-lived agreement in May, brokered in Geneva, temporarily slashed reciprocal tariffs—only to collapse days later amid mutual accusations of bad faith. Trump then accused China of reneging on the rare earths clause. China countered that U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports and student visas violated the deal’s spirit. With the World Trade Organization case pending and the U.S. Court of International Trade questioning Trump’s authority to impose blanket tariffs, the legal and diplomatic landscape is increasingly fraught. The upcoming London summit, featuring Trump’s top economic officials and a Chinese delegation backed by Xi himself, may offer a narrow window to stabilise trade ties.

But few expect a grand bargain. The past four months have revealed the fragility of agreements built on political posturing and strategic distrust. For global markets, the message is clear: unpredictability is the new norm.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇱 Chile likely to swing right as presidential hopefuls emerge: With elections set for November this year, Chile appears poised for a dramatic political turn. After six years under left-leaning President Gabriel Boric and his Broad Front coalition, polls suggest a rightward pivot is imminent. Boric, constitutionally barred from seeking a second consecutive term, will likely be succeeded by one of several conservative contenders. Leading the field is Evelyn Matthei, a veteran politician and former mayor of Santiago’s Providencia district. Despite her ties to the Pinochet-era regime—her father served as a top general—Matthei positions herself as a pragmatic centrist. She champions market reforms, calls for fiscal restraint, and supports a wide range of socially oriented policy. Her appeal lies in her promise of stability and growth, with a focus on reviving Chile’s economy by slashing bureaucracy and boosting GDP.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 White House escalates crackdown on protestors with marine deployment to Los Angeles: In a controversial move, the Pentagon has confirmed the deployment of 700 U.S. Marines to Los Angeles amid ongoing anti-immigration protests, marking a significant intensification of President Trump’s domestic response. This follows the earlier arrival of National Guard troops, despite vocal opposition from California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is pursuing legal action against the deployments. While officials say the Marines will support federal protection efforts without direct protest engagement, critics argue the move is excessive and politically charged. Protesters and civil rights groups warn the action risks militarising civil dissent. The Trump administration insists it is maintaining law and order, but critics view it as an unconstitutional overreach designed to stoke fear and suppress demonstrations against ICE raids and the president’s restrictive immigration policies.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 🇺🇳 Israel backs Trump plan to dismantle UN peacekeeping in Lebanon: Israel is reportedly supporting a U.S. initiative to end the 47-year presence of UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, fuelling fears in Beirut amid surging Israeli airstrikes. The Trump administration is considering defunding global peacekeeping operations, including UNIFIL, whose mandate expires in August. Israel claims the Lebanese army would be more effective in dislodging Hizbollah near the border, despite UNIFIL having served as a key buffer since 1978. Tensions have escalated since Israel's 2024 bombing campaign killed over 4,000 Lebanese, displacing a million. Israeli forces have since withdrawn from most of the south, but clashes persist. France is lobbying Washington to preserve UNIFIL’s presence, while the Lebanese army has warned of severing international cooperation if strikes continue. A final U.S. decision awaits a forthcoming Pentagon assessment.

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