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📰 World on cusp of Nuclear arms race

📰 World on cusp of Nuclear arms race

and U.S. official invokes 'divine guidance' on Iran

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
June 18, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

From West Africa today, protests have broken out in Abidjan following the exclusion of a key opposition leader from Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential race. In Nigeria, Amnesty International has urged authorities to halt the near-daily bloodshed in Benue State. Meanwhile, Guinea has unveiled a new electoral commission under growing pressure to restore civilian rule. In the Middle East, tensions between Israel and Iran continue to rise, with U.S. officials citing “divine guidance” in their response.

Our main story today explores the legal, financial, and geopolitical struggle over Russia’s frozen sovereign asset

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Huckabee urges Trump to consider nuclear strike on Iran, invoking divine guidance: U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee urged President Donald Trump to consider a nuclear attack on Iran, likening the decision to Truman’s 1945 atomic bombings on Japan. In a message shared by the White House on X, Huckabee claimed Trump would “hear from heaven” and framed the moment as divinely ordained. The appeal comes amid heightened Israeli lobbying for U.S. military action, despite intelligence assessments that Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons. Huckabee’s remarks, reflecting his evangelical Christian Zionist views, drew praise from Iran hawk Senator Lindsey Graham, who has advocated for unilateral U.S. action against Iran for a decade. Trump, dismissing U.S. intelligence, reiterated demands for Iran’s “complete surrender” and “evacuation of Tehran,” also hinting at potential negotiations via VP J.D. Vance or envoy Steve Witkoff. According to Axios, Trump is weighing military options with his national security team.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 EU unveils phased Russian gas ban amid push to end Kremlin energy ties: The European Union is moving to phase out Russian natural gas imports, unveiling new legislation that would prohibit pipeline and liquefied gas flows from Moscow starting January 1, 2026—with limited exceptions. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen presented the measures in Strasbourg, aiming to eliminate Russian fossil fuel reliance by 2027. The draft law mandates member states to publish diversification plans and track gas origins, classifying supplies as Russian unless otherwise verified. While some long-term contracts may continue until 2028, landlocked nations like Hungary and Slovakia—who have resisted the shift—will be granted extra time to comply. The move forms part of the REPowerEU initiative and aligns with new sanctions proposals, including capping Russian oil at $45 per barrel. Full sanctions still require unanimous approval from all 27 EU members.

3️⃣ 🇸🇪 World on cusp of new nuclear arms race, says SIPRI: As of January 2025, nearly all nine nuclear-armed states—led by the US, Russia, and China—are aggressively modernising their arsenals. Of the estimated 12,241 warheads globally, 9,614 are operational stockpiles, with 2,100 on high alert. Russia and the US still hold about 90% of these weapons, and both are preparing for a post–New START era in 2026. China now possesses at least 600 warheads and is rapidly expanding its silo-based ICBM infrastructure. Meanwhile, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel are also enhancing capabilities, while Iran is poised to exit the Non-Proliferation Treaty following Israeli attacks. Arms control is in freefall, and experts warn of a new arms race marked by AI, space, and cyber threats. Regional crises, including Indo-Pakistan tensions and growing nuclear debates in East Asia and Europe, heighten the risks of miscalculation and destabilisation.

4️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 G7 backs Israel as Trump demands Iran’s “unconditional surrender”: As the Israel-Iran air war enters its fifth day, G7 leaders have declared support for Israel, despite it initiating the conflict and Iran’s prior compliance with IAEA inspections. President Trump, who left the G7 summit early to pursue "something bigger than a ceasefire", demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” on Truth Social and warned that U.S. patience was “wearing thin,” though clarified that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would not be targeted—“at least not for now.” Explosions were reported in Tehran and Isfahan, while Israeli airstrikes continue amid air raid sirens in Tel Aviv, as Iranian strikes reportedly hit Mossad's HQ. Meanwhile, the U.S. is deploying more warplanes, and global oil markets are on alert after strikes on key energy sites including South Pars.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇸🇸 🇺🇬 UN warns of imminent famine in South Sudan amid succession crisis: A UN-backed food security report warns that famine could strike parts of South Sudan’s Upper Nile state within two months, with 22,000 people already facing starvation along the Sobat River. Nearly 60% of the country is food insecure, with the crisis rooted in political infighting. President Salva Kiir’s ongoing efforts to consolidate power—especially by promoting ally Benjamin Bol Mel as successor—have ignited ethnically driven violence. Government offensives, backed by Ugandan troops and militias, have ravaged ecologically fragile zones and blocked aid. Displacement, flooding, and economic collapse have worsened the crisis, while international assistance remains critically underfunded. The war in Sudan has added over a million refugees and further strained resources. As violence spreads to Unity and Warrap states, South Sudan faces its third potential famine since independence.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇪🇺 THE LEGAL, FINANCIAL, AND POLITICAL BATTLE OVER RUSSIAN SOVEREIGN ASSETS

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western allies froze an estimated $280 billion in Russian sovereign assets, with the EU alone holding about €210 billion—primarily through the Belgium-based clearinghouse Euroclear. This vast stockpile, amassed through Russia’s export-heavy economy and reliance on Western currencies, has become the focus of intense debate: should it remain frozen, be redirected, or seized outright to fund Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction?

Mounting Pressure to Seize for Reconstruction

Calls to confiscate these assets have grown louder as Ukraine faces escalating military costs and a crumbling U.S. aid pipeline. Kyiv and its allies argue that using Russia’s assets is both just and necessary: a way to impose consequences for aggression, address war damages, and fill funding gaps as donor fatigue sets in. With rebuilding costs now estimated between $524 billion and $800 billion—several times Ukraine’s GDP—Ukraine’s economic future increasingly hinges on access to these funds. Despite growing support, the legality of asset confiscation remains murky. Most international law experts argue that seizure without a binding international court ruling amounts to unlawful expropriation. The concept of “collective countermeasures” remains untested and controversial. While the U.S. and Canada have passed legislation to allow confiscation, major EU asset holders like Belgium and France remain resistant, fearing financial instability, retaliatory lawsuits, and damage to the euro’s credibility as a reserve currency.

Windfall Profits: A Legal Workaround

Instead of seizing principal assets, the EU has begun transferring windfall profits—interest accrued on the frozen funds—to Ukraine. In 2024 alone, Euroclear earned €6.9 billion in profits, much of which is now funnelled to Kyiv through the EU’s Peace Facility and reconstruction funds. These profits also backstop a G7-led $50 billion loan package for Ukraine, making them central to medium-term support—but complicating any future asset confiscation or unfreezing.

Moscow has responded by freezing Western assets in Russia and threatening to expropriate private U.S. and European holdings if its assets are seized. It views unblocking its reserves as a central demand in any future peace deal. While negotiations remain unlikely for now, Western policymakers may eventually consider using the assets as leverage—gradually unfreezing them in exchange for concrete concessions from Russia.

Frozen Assets as Leverage for Peace?

As the war drags on and aid dries up, frozen Russian assets have evolved from a punitive measure into a financial and diplomatic lifeline. While outright confiscation remains fraught with legal and political risks, the profits from these assets, and their symbolic and material weight, may prove vital both to sustaining Ukraine’s war effort and shaping any eventual path to peace.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇮 Protests erupt in Abidjan over opposition leader’s exclusion from presidential race: Thousands gathered in Abidjan on Saturday demanding the reinstatement of opposition leader Tidjane Thiam, barred from October’s presidential vote due to dual nationality. Despite rain, demonstrators in PDCI colours rallied near the electoral commission, denouncing the decision as unjust. Thiam, a former Credit Suisse CEO, renounced his French citizenship in March but was still deemed ineligible. “This is a movement to ensure democracy prevails,” he said in a video message. Senior PDCI officials submitted a formal appeal, while tensions rise ahead of a ruling party congress expected to confirm President Alassane Ouattara’s controversial re-election bid. Ouattara, in power since 2011, argues term limits don’t apply post-2016 referendum. His last victory, boycotted by the opposition, raised fears of unrest—a grim reminder of the deadly post-election violence that shook Ivory Coast in 2010.

2️⃣ 🇳🇬 Amnesty International calls on Nigeria to prevent ‘almost daily bloodshed in Benue state’: More than 100 people are feared dead after armed assailants stormed Yelwata in Benue State overnight, setting homes ablaze and unleashing chaos in one of Nigeria’s most violence-stricken regions. Amnesty International condemned the government's failure to halt the “almost daily bloodshed” in Benue, warning that continued attacks risk worsening displacement and food insecurity, as most victims are farmers. While local officials confirmed 45 fatalities, residents believe the true toll is far higher. Clashes between Fulani herders and Christian farmers over land and water access have fuelled repeated massacres, including a similar attack last month that left at least 20 dead. Amnesty called for urgent action to prevent further loss of life, saying impunity has emboldened the attackers and paralysed rural communities.

3️⃣ 🇬🇳 Guinea unveils new election body amid pressure to return to civilian rule: -Guinea’s ruling junta has established a new Directorate General of Elections (DGE) to oversee a constitutional referendum in September and national elections now pushed to December 2025. The DGE, created by decree from junta leader Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya, will manage voter rolls, organise elections, and represent Guinea in international electoral forums. Opposition groups remain sceptical after repeated delays in the promised democratic transition, which was initially set for completion by the end of 2024. January protests rocked the capital Conakry after missed deadlines, and fears persist about the legitimacy of future votes, especially after the regime dissolved over 50 political parties and restricted media freedom. Critics warn the junta’s grip on political and civic space raises serious doubts about whether Guinea’s transition will be genuinely democratic.