Hello and welcome back.

In Europe, the Netherlands calls on the EU to review its trade agreement with Israel, and Belarus intensifies military preparations while tensions rise along its borders with EU neighbours. In Africa, Burundian authorities struggle to manage the humanitarian impact of escalating conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Today’s lead story examines the strategic direction—and potential blind spots—of the UN’s accelerated “UN80” reform initiative.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇮🇳 Pakistani prime minister warns India of reprisal: Pakistan has vowed retaliation after Indian airstrikes killed 31 people in Punjab and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif pledged to avenge the deaths, while Deputy PM Ishaq Dar said the military would respond “proportionately and responsibly” at a time of its choosing. India said the strikes targeted militants linked to a deadly attack on Hindu tourists in April, while Pakistan denied the presence of terrorist camps and called the attacks unprovoked. As cross-border shelling intensified, both sides suffered civilian casualties, raising fears of escalation between the two nuclear-armed states.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇺🇦 Xi begins Russia visit amid drone strikes on Moscow: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow on Wednesday for a four-day visit during which he will meet President Putin and attend Russia’s Victory Day military parade. His trip coincided with a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks that forced airport closures and disrupted flights, including that of Serbia’s president. Russia claimed to have intercepted over 500 drones in 24 hours. Xi’s visit, which includes planned cooperation agreements and talks on a new gas pipeline, highlights deepening China-Russia ties despite accusations from Kyiv that China is tacitly aiding Moscow’s war effort. Beijing argues that it maintains neutrality on the conflict.

3️⃣ 🇧🇷 🇺🇸 Brazilian government rejects U.S. request to designate gangs as terrorist organisations: Brazil has rejected a U.S. request to label two major gangs, Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV), as terrorist groups, according to National Security Secretary Mario Sarrubo. The request was made during a U.S.-Brazil meeting in Brasília, where American officials cited gang activity in 12 U.S. states and links to gun trafficking and money laundering. Sarrubo said Brazilian law defines terrorism narrowly, excluding criminal groups unless motivated by race or religion. Despite U.S. claims that a designation would aid enforcement and sanctions, Brazil maintains these are criminal—not terrorist—entities.

4️⃣ 🇧🇾 🇪🇺 Belarus’ military buildup and border tensions with EU neighbours intensify: Belarus conducted military drills near the Lithuanian and Latvian borders mid last-month and more recently has commenced its annual conscription drive aiming to enlist 10,000 recruits. Preparations also advanced for joint Zapad 2025 exercises with Russia, scheduled for September. Poland and Latvia reported a rise in migrant crossings from Belarus, with Warsaw accusing Belarusian guards of throwing stones and framing the crisis as a hybrid threat. Lithuania separately claimed to have uncovered a Russian-Belarusian plot targeting the Belarusian diaspora.

5️⃣ 🇳🇬 Ethnic tensions, insurgency, and banditry drive widespread violence in Nigeria: Over 110 were killed in Plateau state between late March and mid-April as herder-farmer clashes surged, with Benue state recording at least 114 deaths in similar violence. In Borno, resurgent jihadist attacks by Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province killed over 60 people in April, prompting warnings from the governor about territorial losses. In the North West, Zamfara and Kebbi states have seen intensified banditry and jihadist activity this week, including mass abductions and retaliatory killings. Two emerging extremist groups, Lakurawa and Mahmuda, escalated assaults in Kebbi, Niger, and Kwara, raising concerns of widening insecurity.

Major Story

🇺🇳 UN PEACE AND SECURITY REFORM: STRUCTURE OR SUBSTANCE?

The UN is facing mounting pressure to streamline its bureaucracy amid deepening budget cuts, particularly from the United States. A leaked reform options paper, part of Secretary-General António Guterres’ fast-tracked “UN80” initiative, suggests major structural overhauls to improve efficiency and fiscal discipline. Proposals include merging the Department of Peace Operations (DPO) and the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA), two entities frequently at odds over mandates in crises such as Sudan and Haiti.

Though prior attempts at integration failed due to internal resistance and geopolitical turf wars, UN80 revisits bold ideas – including forming a single peace and security body encompassing peacekeeping, political missions, disarmament, counterterrorism, and drug control. Another proposal shifts staff from New York to regional offices closer to conflict zones.

What remains lacking, however, is strategic clarity. Without consensus on whether to prioritise blue helmet deployments or preventive diplomacy, any structural reforms risk becoming superficial. Member states must define what peace and security should look like in a constrained era, or risk letting institutional reshuffling mask a lack of political will.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇳🇱 🇪🇺 🇮🇱 Netherlands urges EU to review trade with Israel: Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp has called on the EU to formally review its Association Agreement with Israel, citing “catastrophic” breaches of international law due to Israel’s ongoing obstruction of humanitarian aid to Gaza. Speaking to The Guardian, Veldkamp said the situation violates human rights commitments under the accord and confirmed the Netherlands will oppose any extension of the EU-Israel Action Plan. In a letter to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, he criticised Israel’s proposed aid distribution mechanisms and questioned Netanyahu’s prioritisation of defeating Hamas over securing hostage releases. The issue will be raised at this week’s EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Poland.

2️⃣ 🇧🇮 🇨🇩 🇺🇳 Burundi authorities grapple with humanitarian fallout from DRC conflict: Authorities in Burundi face mounting pressure as the humanitarian response to tens of thousands of Congolese refugees falters and political repression intensifies ahead of the June–August elections. Late March, officials began clearing the overcrowded Rugombo site near the DRC border, pushing refugees toward camps like Musenyi, though many refused relocation due to poor conditions. Meanwhile, the UN warned of a worsening aid funding crisis. On the political front, opposition figures and journalists faced arrests and abductions, while the national human rights chief fled the country. Fuel shortages have also raised concerns that candidates will be unable to campaign effectively in rural areas, threatening the integrity of the upcoming electoral process.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics