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📰 Xi, Lula pledge unity

📰 Xi, Lula pledge unity

and El Salvador scraps presidential term limits

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
August 14, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Sudan urges South Sudan to clamp down on RSF supply lines and weighs higher oil transit fees; German defence firm Renk eyes shifting tank parts production to the U.S. following Merz’s embargo on Israeli-bound exports; and Amman hosts talks on Syria’s reconstruction.

Today’s lead story examines how Western policy is driving Iran towards the nuclear threshold.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇺🇸 Pakistan welcomes U.S. designation of Balochistan Liberation Army as a foreign terrorist organisation: The United States has formally listed Pakistan’s Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and its armed wing, the Majeed Brigade, as Foreign Terrorist Organisations, citing deadly attacks including a March train hijacking that killed 31 people. The move, welcomed by Islamabad, is expected to intensify scrutiny of the group’s supporters abroad and comes as Pakistan’s army chief visits Washington. Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest but least populated province, has faced a separatist insurgency since the early 2000s, driven by demands for autonomy and a greater share of resource revenues. Militants have continued targeting security forces and foreign workers despite government claims of progress. The designation follows recent large-scale clashes in the province and a new U.S.-Pakistan trade deal involving oil development in resource-rich Balochistan.

2️⃣ 🇧🇷 🇨🇳 Xi, Lula pledge China–Brazil unity amid U.S. trade tensions: Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for China and Brazil to serve as a model of “unity and self-reliance” in the Global South, telling President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a phone call that bilateral ties are “at their best in history.” According to Xinhua, Xi pledged support for Brazil’s sovereignty, urged resistance to unilateralism and protectionism, and noted smooth progress in aligning both countries’ development strategies. Lula’s office said the leaders reaffirmed BRICS and G20 roles in defending multilateralism, discussed Ukraine peace efforts, and committed to expanding cooperation in health, energy, satellites, and the digital economy. Lula also highlighted China’s importance to November’s COP30 climate conference in Brazil. The talks come amid heightened US trade measures, with President Donald Trump imposing steep tariffs on Brazilian goods and maintaining high duties on Chinese imports.

3️⃣ 🇸🇻 El Salvador scraps presidential term limits as critics warn of deepening autocracy: El Salvador’s legislature has passed sweeping constitutional reforms abolishing presidential term limits, extending terms to six years, and removing run-off elections—moves critics say cement President Nayib Bukele’s grip on power. The U.S.-backed leader, who brands himself the “world’s coolest dictator,” has faced years of accusations of eroding democratic checks, sidelining opponents, and stacking courts with loyalists. Supporters argue the changes merely give voters the option to re-elect Bukele, whose gang crackdown has sharply lowered homicide rates. But rights groups warn the reforms dismantle one of the country’s final safeguards against authoritarianism. Opposition lawmakers say power is now fully concentrated in Bukele’s hands, raising the risk of abuses and intensifying repression. Civil society leaders have likened the changes to the formal death of Salvadoran democracy.

4️⃣ 🇸🇧 🇹🇼 🇵🇼 🇨🇳 Solomon Islands limits Pacific Islands Forum meeting to members amid Taiwan tensions: Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele has confirmed that next month’s Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ meeting in Honiara will exclude dialogue partners, restricting participation to PIF members. Manele framed the move as a “sovereign” decision to protect regional unity, dismissing suggestions of Chinese pressure to sideline Taiwan. The prime minister said the change was due to delays in implementing a new framework for partner engagement, urging more time to “engage effectively” and focus on priorities like climate finance. Critics, including New Zealand and Papua New Guinea, expressed unease, while Palau backed the decision. The United States is reportedly displeased, and Taiwan has urged maintaining current arrangements. Manele signalled partners could be invited next year once the revised mechanism is in place.

5️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Ankara warns Israel and SDF over actions threatening Syria’s stability: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has urged Israel and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to halt activities that undermine Syria’s security, following talks in Ankara with Syrian counterpart Asaad al-Shaibani. Fidan accused both of fuelling instability in the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, warning that regional security cannot be achieved by destabilising neighbours. The meeting coincided with Turkiye and Syria signing a memorandum on military training and consultancy. Tensions have intensified amid renewed clashes between Syrian forces and the SDF in Aleppo province, jeopardising a March integration deal. Ankara views the SDF’s YPG leadership as tied to the PKK, despite ongoing peace talks. Fidan cautioned the group against exploiting Syria’s chaos, warning Turkiye would not tolerate “mischievous” manoeuvres.

Major Story

🇺🇳 🇮🇷 WESTERN POLICY IS DRIVING IRAN TOWARDS THE NUCLEAR THRESHOLD

On 15 June 2025, Israel launched a surprise assault on Iran, citing self-defence, just as U.S.–Iran nuclear talks were making headway toward an enrichment-for-sanctions relief deal. IAEA inspectors were still in Iran, and mediators in Oman were preparing for a sixth round of negotiations. U.S. intelligence had reaffirmed in March that Tehran was not pursuing a bomb. Days later, US airstrikes joined the Israeli offensive, hitting Iran’s key nuclear sites at Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz. The attacks not only terminated the talks and inspections but also violated international law, undermining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Despite their diplomatic heritage in the JCPOA, European powers backed the strikes, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz praising Israel for “doing the dirty work for all of us.”

From Restraint to Reconsideration

The war failed to dismantle Iran’s programme or destabilise its regime. Instead, it exposed Tehran’s lack of deterrence against another assault and confirmed that Europe had abandoned its mediator role, adopting Washington’s and Israel’s hardline posture. Confidence in U.S. security assurances evaporated, and Iran stopped disclosing the damage to its programme or the location of its 400 kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium. For many in Tehran, the lesson echoed North Korea’s path in 2013: coercion erodes incentives for compliance and accelerates the march toward weaponisation.

The Snap-Back Gambit

Europe’s threat to invoke the JCPOA’s ‘snap-back’ mechanism before its October expiry is widely viewed in Iran as political leverage rather than legal necessity. While the E-3 cite non-compliance, Tehran was fully compliant until the U.S. withdrew in 2018. Europeans failed to deliver sanctions relief and turned a blind eye to Israeli sabotage campaigns, culminating in the 12-Day War. Iranian diplomats still signal openness to talks, but commentators warn that Europe’s demands for zero enrichment—and alignment with U.S.–Israeli objectives—have stripped negotiations of credibility.

Nuclear Threshold Temptations

Iran’s leaders have not formally decided to weaponise, citing a longstanding religious ban. Yet the post-war environment is fuelling public and elite calls for a deterrent. Suspended inspections, heightened social cohesion, and growing nationalist pride after Iran’s retaliation against Israel have strengthened the case for crossing the threshold. Withdrawal from the NPT, debated in parliament, would remove legal constraints but also expose operational weaknesses, notably in strategic delivery systems.

Washington’s Test of Credibility

President Donald Trump’s next move will be decisive. Iranian officials demand binding security guarantees against future attacks as a condition for talks. Analysts warn that without credible assurances—backed by a shift from coercion to trust-building—Iran will see no reason to cooperate. By insisting on zero enrichment, Trump risks repeating the failures of past demands that ignored enrichment’s symbolic and economic value. Without a course correction, the US and its allies may hasten the arrival of a 10th nuclear-armed state—an outcome they claim to be preventing.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇸🇸 Sudan presses South Sudan to curb RSF supply routes and consider higher oil transit fees: Sudan has urged South Sudan to strengthen border controls to block alleged supply routes to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a South Sudanese official told Sudan Tribune. The request was delivered in Juba by Malik Agar, deputy head of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereign Council, during talks with President Salva Kiir and Deputy President Benjamin Bol Mel. Khartoum also proposed a new “sovereign fee” on top of existing oil transit charges, aiming to boost revenue. Sudan claims the RSF is funnelling supplies through South Sudan to Kordofan and Darfur. Public statements from both sides were limited, with officials citing economic cooperation and security ties. The Sudanese army-RSF conflict, ongoing since April 2023, has displaced millions and driven widespread ethnic violence.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇮🇱 German arms manufacturer considers U.S. production shift after Merz’s embargo on military exports to Israel: German defence manufacturer Renk may relocate production of tank transmissions for Israel to the United States after Berlin imposed an arms embargo on equipment that could be used in Gaza. CEO Alexander Sagel told investors the move could take 8–10 months if restrictions persist. The embargo, announced by Chancellor Friedrich Merz following Israel’s approval of a full occupation of Gaza, marks a rare break in Germany’s staunch support for Israel. Berlin, Israel’s second-largest arms supplier after Washington, cited concern over Palestinian suffering and the legality of forced displacement. Renk’s parts power Israel’s Merkava tanks and Namer armoured carriers, both used in Gaza operations. While Germany has curbed military exports, it continues other defence deals with Israel, underscoring the limits of its policy shift.

3️⃣ 🇯🇴 🇸🇾 Amman hosts meeting on Syria reconstruction: Foreign ministers from Syria and Jordan, along with U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, met in Amman to advance cooperation on Syria’s reconstruction under its new government. The sides agreed to form a working group to consolidate a ceasefire in Suwayda, where sectarian clashes in July killed 1,400, and to pursue a comprehensive settlement to the crisis. The joint statement affirmed Suwayda as part of Syria, pledging rights, representation, and inclusion for all citizens. Jordan’s King Abdullah II voiced full support for Syria’s stability, sovereignty, and rebuilding efforts, offering expertise to strengthen Syrian institutions and combat terrorism and smuggling. With sanctions lifted after Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, Damascus has secured over $14bn in new deals, including Qatari- and Emirati-backed transport projects, Italian-funded housing towers, and Saudi real estate investments, part of an estimated $400bn reconstruction need.