Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Zelensky arrives in Jeddah

📰 Zelensky arrives in Jeddah

and Russia advances

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 11, 2025

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In Latin America, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has negotiated tariff relief with Washington, while in Colombia, FARC-linked guerrillas have released hostages. Meanwhile, European ministers are lending support to an Arab initiative for the reconstruction of Gaza.

Our lead story delves into Eritrea's regional strategic calculus, as tensions in the Horn of Africa continue to escalate.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇸🇩 South Sudan faces renewed conflict and state collapse: South Sudan teeters on the brink of renewed conflict as tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar escalate. On 4 March, a Nuer militia linked to Machar seized an army base in Nasir, prompting Kiir to arrest key Machar allies, further destabilising the fragile 2018 peace agreement. The war in Sudan has exacerbated South Sudan’s crisis, with economic strain from disrupted oil exports and shifting alliances between Kiir, Sudan’s military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF’s Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemedti'. Nuer militias may attempt to seize Upper Nile state capital Malakal—a multi-ethnic city—wherein fighting could see communal massacres that might in turn trigger fighting in the rest of the state or throughout the country, potentially merging with Sudan’s war and drawing in regional actors.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇸🇦 Zelenskyy arrives in Jeddah for ceasefire discussions: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Jeddah on Monday for talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as Riyadh continues its mediation efforts between Kyiv and Moscow. His visit comes ahead of critical U.S.-Ukraine negotiations, where Kyiv is expected to propose a ceasefire covering the Black Sea and long-range missile strikes, alongside a potential prisoner exchange. Reports also suggest Ukraine seeks a rare earth minerals agreement with Washington. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Donald Trump to ensure a “positive outcome” from the talks, aiming to restore U.S. military aid and intelligence-sharing. As discussions unfold, military officials from over 30 nations will convene in Paris to explore the formation of an international security force to deter future Russian offensives.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 Damascus reaches agreement with SDF to integrate institutions into the Syrian state: Syria’s transitional government has reached a significant agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate the SDF into the country’s new armed forces. The deal, signed by interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa and SDF leader Mazlum Kobane, emphasizes the unity of Syria’s territory and rejects any form of division. The agreement comes after years of efforts by the Syrian government to incorporate various armed groups, including the SDF, into the new Defense Ministry. Although the SDF played a key role in the fight against the Islamic State and has long been backed by the United States, the deal could help ease tensions with Turkey, which views some Kurdish factions within the SDF as linked to the PKK, a designated terrorist group.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia advances in Ukraine’s Sumy, Kursk regions: Russian troops recaptured three settlements in western Russia’s Kursk region on Sunday, continuing their push to dislodge Ukrainian forces seven months after Kyiv’s cross-border incursion. The Russian Defence Ministry announced the seizure of Malaya Lokhnya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Kositsa, while Russian war bloggers reported that special forces had used a gas pipeline near Sudzha to infiltrate Ukrainian positions. Ukraine’s military stated that it repelled 15 Russian attacks in Kursk, though fighting remains intense. Meanwhile, Russian advances and U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent policy shifts on Ukraine have raised European concerns over Washington’s commitment to Kyiv. With Ukraine’s forces nearly encircled in Kursk and muddy spring conditions complicating retreat options, Kyiv faces a difficult choice: withdraw under fire or risk further entrapment as Russian forces press forward.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Israel escalates attacks in South Lebanon, violating ceasefire terms: The Israeli military launched airstrikes on southern Lebanon, targeting what it described as Hizbollah “military sites” containing weapons and rocket launchers. Despite a ceasefire agreement on November 27 that paused a year-long conflict, Israel has continued periodic attacks on Lebanese territory. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency (NNA) reported multiple Israeli strikes across the south, while Israel justified the attacks as necessary for national security. Israel had agreed to withdraw from Lebanon by February 18, following a missed January deadline, but has retained troops in five key locations.

Major Story

🇪🇷 🇪🇹 ERITREA’S REGIONAL STRATEGIC CALCULUS: AT RISK OF OVERBALANCING

Since November 2020, Eritrean forces have been actively involved in Ethiopia's Tigray region, currently occupying significant territory in the north. Sharing a 1,000 km border with Ethiopia, Eritrea's military support for the Ethiopian federal government’s 2020-2022 war exacerbated its devastation. This intervention is part of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki's grand strategy of ending his country's diplomatic isolation and reasserting its influence in the region.

A Shift in Relations: Cooperation and Conflict

In 2018, a rapprochement between Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrea raised hopes for stability. However, as Abiy consolidated his power and sidelined the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)—a long-standing adversary of Eritrea dating back to the 1970s—the growing cooperation between Addis Ababa and Asmara presented an opportunity for both sides. Their collaboration in the Tigray conflict aimed to weaken the TPLF, with Eritrea seeking not only to diminish Ethiopia’s enemies but also to enhance its own standing as a key regional military power.

The Risks of Prolonged Involvement

Eritrea's strategy, however, is fraught with risk. While it seeks to exploit Ethiopia’s instability, prolonged involvement in the Tigray could backfire. As dialogue between Ethiopia and Tigray resumes, Eritrea’s continued presence in the region may leave President Isaias vulnerable to international isolation once again.

The Role of Ethiopia in Eritrea’s Regional Ambitions

Eritrea’s regional policy has largely been shaped by its southern neighbor, Ethiopia, a much more powerful nation. A strong, united Ethiopia has long posed a significant obstacle to Eritrea’s regional aspirations, particularly when Ethiopia's government has been hostile toward Eritrea.

A weakened, divided Ethiopia, however, represents an opportunity for Eritrea to gain influence. With Ethiopia politically unstable, Eritrea can leverage its position to establish itself as a regional gatekeeper, while justifying its militarization. However, Eritrea must avoid Ethiopia’s complete collapse, which would destabilize the region and undermine Eritrea’s objectives.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇵🇸 European ministers back Arab plan for Gaza reconstruction: The foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy, and the UK have endorsed Egypt’s Arab-led initiative for Gaza’s reconstruction, calling it a viable path to rebuilding the war-torn enclave. In a joint statement on Saturday, they highlighted the plan’s potential to rapidly improve conditions for Palestinians if fully implemented. The 91-page proposal outlines a $53 billion budget over five years, addressing both infrastructure rebuilding and post-war governance. It serves as an alternative to US President Donald Trump’s controversial proposal to forcibly relocate Gaza’s population. Despite European backing, both Washington and Tel Aviv have dismissed the Arab-led initiative, raising questions about its feasibility.

2️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 Sheinbaum negotiates tariff suspension with Washington: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum secured a temporary suspension of U.S. tariffs through diplomatic persistence, contrasting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s confrontational stance. Facing Trump’s initial refusal to lift the 25% tariffs, Sheinbaum presented data showing Mexico’s crackdown on fentanyl trafficking and reinforced the benefits of U.S.-Mexico cooperation. Her argument swayed Trump, who announced a waiver for Mexican imports under the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), citing respect for Sheinbaum’s leadership.

3️⃣ 🇨🇴 FARC-linked guerillas release 29 hostages: Twenty-eight police officers and a soldier held captive in southwest Colombia were freed over the weekend, ending a tense standoff in the coca-growing region of Cauca. The detainees, held since Thursday, were released in La Hacienda and escorted to El Plateado, where officials from the Ombudsman’s Office and the United Nations awaited them. Their capture followed violent clashes between security forces and residents, reportedly influenced by the dissident FARC faction, Estado Mayor Central (EMC). The incident posed a significant challenge to President Gustavo Petro’s government, which has struggled to reassert state control in Cauca amid resistance to its crop substitution strategy. Defense Minister Pedro Sanchez warned of using state force if necessary, while Petro accused the EMC of exploiting civilians to undermine security efforts in the region.